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Italy starts 2021 in Red zone, with restrictive government-imposed anti-contagion rules still in place to prevent a third wave of coronavirus. The country will remain in the red zone until next Wednesday, January 6, with the sole exception of Monday, January 4 (orange zone). And the curfew returns from 22 to 5. On Friday, January 15, the effects of decree law n. 158 on December 2 and the Dpcm on December 3, while on January 7 the restrictions of Christmas 2020 that brought Italy to the red and orange zone “stumbling” cease. What will happen next? What activities will be able to reopen and in what areas will the Italian regions be located? The government foresees the reopening of some activities in January, together with the decree law and the Dpcm that will replace those in force until the 15th.
As far as schools are concerned, there is already a date, that of January 7th, for resuming attendance at 50%. Just yesterday the green light was given for the resumption of classes at the school at 50% from Thursday, January 7. The Ministry of the Interior, in a note, announced that “the prefectures have adopted the operational documents as a result of the work of the school-transport coordination tables installed in all provinces in view of the resumption” and “of the order of the Minister of Health of December 24, 2020 which, limited to the period January 7-15, reduces class attendance to 50% “.
The new Dpcm and the closings after January 15, 2021
Then there are the production activities: for bars and restaurants, the system of yellow, orange and red zones will remain in force and therefore stores will be able to open until 6 p.m. if they are in areas with fewer restrictions or they will only be able to take out and home delivery in other cases. But it will be necessary to evaluate the emergency numbers. And the last year’s numbers are bad: they are 23,477 new cases registered in the last 24 hours, in the bulletin of December 31, 2020, of a total of 186,004 swabs processed. If it is true that the number of tests has increased (on December 30 there were 169 thousand), it should be noted that the number of positives has taken a significant jump from 16,202 in the previous bulletin. Therefore, the positivity rate grew significantly again, reaching 12.6%.
But let’s go back to the Dpcm that will replace the one in force until January 15, 2021 with the hypotheses of closures. The closing of theaters, cinemas, gyms and swimming pools could continue even after the holidays. The extension of closures due to the coronavirus emergency is likely even after January 15, when the Dpcm signed by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte on December 3 will expire and a new one will take effect. Threatening the possibility of reopening, the fear of a third wave and the effects of the English variant discovered in recent weeks. The unknown factor of the reopening of the ski still remains, after the observations of the Scientific Technical Committee. After the January 15 deadline, the stop is likely to be extended to theaters, open-air shows, cinemas, gyms, and indoor pools.
You go back to the red, orange and yellow zone
The government has specified that any decision will be made based on epidemiological data that will arrive after the Epiphany. In fact, on January 7 the restrictive Christmas measures expire and the color bands will come into effect again depending on the trend of contagion in the regions (red zone, orange zone and yellow zone). All measures will be taken before mid-January, after analyzing the trend of infections. If some closures, as it appears, were to continue, other activities would be added to the already existing stalls that would call for re-entry into government refreshments. In addition, on January 31 the state of emergency expired, extended by the Council of Ministers on October 7. And an additional extension is not excluded.
“After the Befana we will have to restore the model of risk bands and confirm the basic measures of the yellow areas”: the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza in an interview published in recent days to Corriere della Sera confirmed that as of January 7 the zone system will come into effect again. Therefore, we can wait until the expiration of decree law 172/2020 a series of ministry ordinances to return to the limitations in force before the holidays. Even if instead Walter Ricciardi, adviser to the minister, called for the red zone for all of Italy until January 15 and the closure of schools.
On Wednesday, December 30, the draft report of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità and the ministry was published in which there is no good news for the regions. That is, according to the data based on which the regime of the yellow, orange and red zones is decided:
- the epidemic in Italy remains “still serious due to a high impact on welfare services”;
- In the period from December 8 to 21, 2020, the mean transmissibility index Rt calculated in symptomatic cases was equal to 0.93 (range 0.89 – 1.02), increasing slightly in the last three weeks;
- three regions / PPAA (Veneto, Liguria, Calabria) have a point Rt greater than 1, therefore compatible with a type 2 scenario;
- another 3 (Basilicata, Lombardia and Puglia) exceed it in the average value;
- another three are nearby (Emilia Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia and Marche).
For the color ratings of the regions based on risk bands, experts and the government will look at the epidemiological curve data in the first ten days of the new year. But the first signs, as is clear from the last bulletin, they are not positive. In an Italy in a red zone due to holidays due to coronavirus restrictions, “returning to class is still a priority. It is our goal – says Health Minister Roberto Speranza -. Of course, as long as vaccines do not produce an epidemiological impact. “. on the population, the only thing that works are restrictive measures. The Rt index shows signs of recovery, after the Befana we will have to restore the risk bands model and confirm the basic measurements of the yellow zones. Yes, restaurants and bars closed in 18, closed swimming pools, gyms, cinemas, theaters, stadiums. We are still in the second wave, London is returning to very tough measures and we also continue to have too many cases and too many deaths ”. Thus, at Corriere della Sera, the Minister of Health.
Meanwhile, from a document of the regions, the request, now under consideration by the ISS, to make some changes that could affect the 21 indicators to establish the allocation of the zones (yellow, orange, red) in the context of monitoring the cabin. direction. Among these, as learned, a different method of calculating antigenic and molecular buffers was carried out, which could then affect the positivity rate. The definition of ‘cases’ and test execution strategies could also be re-evaluated.
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