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A free Christmas decree to be passed after December 3, or at the end of the last Dpcm restrictions. And the real danger that opening over the holidays will lead to a third wave of the coronavirus epidemic in January. While the emergency numbers register a slight improvement and the government and the control room are debating the possibility of a relaxation of the restrictions in the regions for the next week and on that, more distant from the time, of a new Dpcm for the holidays.
The new Dpcm to unleash Christmas and the danger of the third wave
The Civil Protection bulletin yesterday registered a slowdown in the number of positives: 37,255 (against 40,000 on Friday) and 544 victims, or six fewer but with a number of tampons (227,695) lowered by 27,000. However, the positivity rate rises again from 16 to 16.3 as hospitalizations of patients with symptoms decline (less than half the day before) and intensive care patients increase modestly: another 76 for a total of 3306. “There is an initial slowdown in the contagion curve, which nevertheless needs to be confirmed,” Franco Locatelli, from the Higher Health Council, said yesterday, but experts emphasize that the slowdown in growth is something different from the decline in the curve, which is expected, if the trend continues to be like this by the middle of next week. As we have explained, to date it cannot be said if the signs of a slowdown in the curve are concrete and it is a consequence of the average chicken given that in some regions there are no signs of improvement for now.
For Ranieri Guerra, who talks about it today in an interview with Corriere della Sera, “The curve is slowing down and will soon start to decline again but will lengthen over time, compared to the first wave as we have more cases, spread across the country, diagnosed even much better, thanks to a testing activity constantly growing. And let’s not forget that we are at the beginning of the winter season. ” In this perspective, the government is thinking of a Christmas decree for the reopening, although The messenger explains that caution prompts ministers to explain that before moving. we must wait for the data that will come out on December 3. That is the expiration date of the last Dpcm but already today it is said that the Conte government’s plan to save Christmas will not be the “free lair of all” of last summer that led to the second wave of the epidemic. There is a reasoning around the possibility of anticipating a possible relaxation of the curfew for mid-December and the night reopening of bars and restaurants.
According to the newspaper, the need to intervene with a new dpcm to celebrate Christmas is taken for granted, although with all precautions, not only due to the expiration of the current one, but to begin to loosen some prescriptions that are also worrying. the regions of the yellow zone:
- intervention can take place gradually after December 3 and may initially affect the more virtuous regions
- later the others could also be included in the new decree that will extend the hours of public establishments – putting limits on capacity – and allow travel between regions;
- The intervention would therefore be in two stages, so as not to unleash mad races in the local area and in the commercial establishments already at the beginning of the new month and to arrive near Christmas Day with more concessions.
How the Conte government wants to save Christmas
The Christmas decree and its risks
However, the Christmas decree carries some risks. Pierpaolo Sileri, Undersecretary of Health of the M5S, in an interview with The impression He still talks about holidays in case of emergency because the improvement in the numbers is uneven: “We must see the progress of the epidemic and evaluate the most appropriate solutions. We will probably have Regions with a better trend and others with greater difficulties.” Then he adds that at the government table there is still the possibility of a national lockdown: “If the data forced us to put all regions in the red, in fact we would reach a national lockdown. But if we opt for this solution only to silence the moans of the discontents, it would be a defeat for all ”.
To explain, however, that the reopening of Christmas could have dangerous effects, we think of the microbiology professor Andrea Crisanti, who, in an interview with Republic, also throws water on the fire on the deceleration of the epidemic curve: “If we look at the infection curve and the dynamics of deaths, we understand how we are in a situation comparable to that of March. And if we consider it with the total blockage in the we had to wait until the end of April to see the famous end of the tunnel, you can guess where we are. And here we are not even doing a real blockade. ”According to Crisanti, it will take more time to assess the end of the second wave of the epidemic of coronavirus and it will take more time to assess the effectiveness of the restrictive measures: “I think the lockdown will still have to be done. It will be inevitable, the numbers will dictate it. “‘Rt will remain greater than or equal to one for a long time. It is a mathematical question.”
For him, the reopening of Christmas could hurt: “Without tools to counteract the spread in the territory, how can we think of a relaxation? In January we will be in this situation again if not in a worse one, in the middle of the third elementary wave: take advantage of the holidays to close. But you have to reconcile the emergency with the economic needs, I understand. But then do something: extend the opening hours of the stores, stagger the entrances, avoid crowds in all directions, in home and away from “.
Meanwhile, controversies continue to pour in from the regions. The descent of Tuscany into the red zone did not please the president of the Region Eugenio Giani: “I am bitter, the infection rate has dropped in the last week.” And also Massimiliano Fedriga, president of Friuli, protests the passage in the orange zone: “There was no collaboration from the government. The algorithms decide. ”
