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The epidemic curve continues to increase: the 26,831 new cases registered indicate that scenario 4 is increasingly realistic for Italy, the most serious expected characterized by a “situation of uncontrolled transmissibility with critical problems in the health system in the short term.” indicated in the document “Prevention and response to Covid-19″, prepared by the Ministry of Health and the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (Iss). That is, the most critical scenario is approaching which, according to the document, refers to a ” a situation that cannot be managed with the extraordinary measures already in place. “
In fact, qualified sources have indicated to ANSA that it is very likely that the strong increase in cases has pushed the Rt contagion index (which indicates the people who can be infected by an individual with the virus) beyond the 1.5 registered among the October 12 and 18. The president of the Region Nello Musumeci has already evoked the closure in Sicily.
The coordinator of the Scientific Technical Committee (CTS) Agostino Miozzo also spoke about scenarios: “All measurements are under study. Today – he told Radio Popolare – we have entered scenario 3, there is also scenario 4. Therefore, that the closure is one of the expected hypotheses – general, partial, localized, or like what we saw in March – it was expected . We hoped, we hoped not to reach those hypotheses. But if we also look at neighboring countries, unfortunately these are realistic hypotheses.
Making the most critical scenario realistic is the increase in cases, which now shows a continuous progression for at least four weeks: since then the epidemic curve continues to show a clearly exponential trend, with doubling times of around a week. The number of new deaths increased, with 217 more in 24 hours, and the number of hospitalizations in intensive care units, which increased by 115 units. “It is a bad sign because after a while the hospitalizations in intensive care end up weighing on mortality,” said physicist Enzo Marinari, from the Sapienza University of Rome.
The number of swabs performed reached a new record of 201,452 swabs in 24 hours, but it is an increase that unfortunately does not correspond to the ability to identify all cases. This is indicated by the ratio of positive cases to swabs, 13.3%. “It is a figure that indicates that follow-up is lost: if the number of positives measured is so large, 13.3% is a very high value,” he observed. “Under these conditions the number that we read for the new positives is much lower than the real one: when the ratios become so high, many escape and the real number begins to lose.”
Lombardy Liguria and Piedmont are the regions where the situation is most critical; in the Center, Lazio and Tuscany are the regions with the most problems, but they still remain, and in the South the region with the most problems is Campania.
The bet with the possibility of doubling the epidemic curve will be played in the next few days: “They will be crucial to try to implement the rules decided by the government,” said Marinari. The first results, he added, “could start to show in four to five days and the hope is that we can start to see a slight decline in new positives in a week.” As for the peak of the epidemic curve, being able to see it or not in a reasonable time is only a consequence of the application of the new measures: “it depends on what we do. If we do not behave responsibly – said Marinari – we could reach a thousand deaths a day: what we will do is determine the trend of the curve ».
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