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L ‘Rt The national level rises again, reaching an altitude of 0.86. The weekly report of the Higher Institute of Health (Iss) for the week of December 7 to 13, 2020 (data updated to December 16, 2020) reports a Covid transmission index that returns to above 1 in Lazio, Veneto and Lombardy.
The case of Lazio, Veneto and Lombardy
“For the first time there is a sign of countertrend in the Rt transmissibility index compared to the previous week in the whole country, with the return of three Regions to a transmissibility compatible with a type 2 scenario (Lazio, Lombardy and Veneto)” , highlights the draft of the weekly monitoring issue-Ministry of Health. This is achieved in a European context characterized by a further increase in the number of cases in some European countries (eg the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Germany).
The mean transmissibility index Rt calculated in symptomatic cases was equal to 0.86, an increase compared to 0.82 in last week’s follow-up. Point RT values less than 1 are found in 16 Regions / PPAA.
“The incidence in Italy is still too high and the impact of the epidemic still remains in most of the country. This situation does not allow a relaxation of the measures adopted in recent weeks and even requires a strengthening of them in some areas of the country “, underlines the ISS.
And again: «During the monitoring week, a Moderate or High risk is still observed in most of the Regions / ASF with only five Regions / PAs with Low risk of an uncontrolled and uncontrollable epidemic. This trend requires rigor in the adoption and compliance of measures, avoiding a relaxation in behavior.
Refusal of hospitalizations and intensive care
In general, the number of people admitted to intensive care has decreased from 3,345 (08/12/2020) to 3,003 (12/15/2020). The number of people admitted to medical areas also decreased from 30,081 (12/08/2020) to 27,342 (12/15/2020).
Although there has been a decrease in the incidence at the national level in the last 14 days – explains the ISS – the value is “still far from levels that would allow the complete reestablishment of the identification of cases and tracing of their contacts throughout the territory national. This approach showed the first signs of criticality when the nationwide value surpassed 50 cases per 100,000 in seven days.
The number of cases not attributable to known transmission chains continues to decline (38,276 compared to 49,967 the previous week), and the percentage of cases detected through contact tracing activities remains stable at 24.6%. On the other hand, a slight increase is observed in the percentage of cases detected due to the appearance of symptoms (34.7% vs 32.3% the previous week).
The Christmas effect
“It is complex to predict the impact that the Christmas season could have, however, the increase in mobility and interpersonal interaction typical of sociability this season could determine a significant increase in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2,” adds the Institute. higher health – In the situation described, this would lead to a consequent rapid increase in cases to levels potentially higher than that observed in November in a context in which the impact of the epidemic on health professionals, services and the population is still very high “.
Last updated: 17:20
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