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“Draghi’s name, if you accept, is the best way to give the market and there partner one from Italy warranty to start the country following recovery extracted from Europe. Once the Recovery and resilience plan it will start you can then go to vote calmly “. Xa Carlo Altomonte, Professor of European Economic Policy at Bocconi, faced with the impossibility of reassembling a most in support of the resigning government there are no other possible ways out. With an executive bridge created just to take Italy to the polls to spring “The Troika would come.” So to speak, but the nightmare of the EU’s highest debt / GDP country after Greece serves to clarify one of the reasons behind the choice made by the head of state. Sergio Mattarella, which intends to form a government “of the president” and has convened for Wednesday Mario draghi. At stake are investments and the reforms necessary to obtain the necessary European resources to return to growth.
Professor, why was voting excluded again in spring?
Because we would not hold. The League is far from being a pro-European customs clearance and, with the prospect of a likely government sovereign, the market would consider our debt (in 2020 it rose to 157% of GDP, ie) is no longer sustainable. You could start to question the EU and ECB support for Italy. On the contrary, with a purposeful government finishing drafting the plan and beginning to implement it in a Europeanist context, navigation promises to be smooth. At that time, with the reforms underway, it will be possible to go to the polls and the market will digest any results.
Is the Recovery Plan now under Parliament a good foundation?
there is acorrect fit. Of course, there are elements to be settled that require important work and it is necessary to ask as soon as possible for the support of the European institutions in the drafting of the missing parts, a process slowed down by the crisis. Then a parliamentary commitment will be necessary to carry out the necessary reforms. For this, we need a solid majority that allows these vital ganglions to be delegated to the government.
The Plan must be presented before April “but it is highly desirable that it happens before,” Mattarella recalled. QWhat parts need to be completed?
One piece is missing at this point: there must be a much more explicit link between investment and reform. For each item of expense, the objectives end that we intend to achieve with each reform and project and the intermediate stages: the disbursement of money depends on its achievement, not on the fact that we have simply spent it.
For example, therefore, it is not enough to write that we intend to reduce the duration of the processes.
We must indicate how much we intend to reduce the gap with the EU average and within what time frame. Is our goal to reduce the gap from 50 to 30% in one year? If we achieve it in a year, we will receive all the resources indicated for the project, even if we have used less. But if that intermediate goal is not achieved, the money will not arrive. The social partners and local authorities, who were previously involved in the process, should also contribute by indicating not where to spend the money, but what the objectives are.
Isn’t it deciding where to spend the whole point?
No, the issue is not how to divide the collected but how to build Great Bear: Recovery must create conditions to grow in the future and not crash. Now we have to identify the targets, then we will decide how to redistribute. Also because also counting the loans TO, the insurance and other European funds, including the part not spent but already accounted for: the Me changes little – there are available in total more than 400 billion: there is wide scope to introduce a welfare reform, or the family quotient, in an organic framework, explaining that they will help stimulate female employment and thus boost productivity. The second important aspect is the participation of private capital in strategic sectors: there is now an openness to public-private partnerships, but a stable regulatory framework is also needed.
The ultimate goal is to increase growth.
A well done recovery could increase it by at least 1 point structurally: from about 0.5% to 1.5% per year. It is our only chance: we are only on our feet if the growth rate exceeds the cost of debt, and with current interest rates, 1.5% would be enough to make debt sustainable. If we don’t get there, whoever is in government will find themselves ravine in front of.
And has governance, on which Italy lives, has set its feet?
The working group then withdrew from the table because Iv was against it, it was actually quite Similary to the structures established by the other EU countries: interministerial committee at the top and bottom of the area managers dealing with specific projects. We are probably talking about a hundred investments, a structure of 300 people does not seem excessive to me. You do not have to hire them, you will get them from the ministries, administrations, investee companies, the Court of Accounts. At most I could take one temporary exception to the rules on public administration contracts order someone from private. Then it will be necessary to provide this structure with the powers of substitution necessary to overcome the usual slowness of our administration.
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