The Marmolada glacier is “15 years old”: the University of Padua prediction

To the glacier of Marbled there is nothing left but 15 years of life. It is the prediction of the glaciologists Dell ‘Padua University: the drama of the situation emerges, they explain, when compared to beyond a hundred years of measurements made by the university. “The glacier in the last 70 years – says Aldino Bondesan, coordinator of the Triveneto glaciological campaigns and author with Robert French, from the University of Pavia, of investigations on the thickness of the ice with georadar – now it has lost more than 80% of oneself volume going from 95 million cubic meters in 1954 to 14 million today. The predictions of a their extinction they are getting closer and closer: the glacier cannot be more than 15 years old ”. By 2035 he Dolomiti risk losing your white giant.

The why it’s not just him altered temperature, says the teacher Mauro varotto– backs off because the volume has thinned out, no longer a alive ‘system’, Begin to erode the surface and when the thickness is less than 1-2 meters dissolution accelerates rapidly. An effect that is fortunately not uniform on the enormous mass: the glacier extends from 3,300 meters of Penia Point at 2,700 meters. If in some places the thickness is reduced, there is no more i 50 meters detected by georadars in 2005, in the healthiest areas the Marmolada could still measure 20-30 meters of ice.

The only good news, in these months of confinement in the world, has been the reduction of CO2 emissions induced by the Covid pandemic, which affects the planetary climate, but it is little to reverse a trend like that of the glaciers in the Alps. This is demonstrated by the annual measurements in the Marmolada carried out by geographers and glaciologists from the University of Padua: “Its surface – observes Mauro Varotto – has grown from about 500 hectares Estimated by Richter in 1888 ai 123 hectares din 2018. From 2010 to 2020 the forehead is delayed on average by 10 meters per year on the 9 measurement signals “.

Based on these data, here is the prediction on the future of the Veneto-Trentino glacier: “If we expand the trend of reduction of the surface of the last 100 years (3 hectares / year) – explains Varotto – the end of the glacier is fixed by 2060. If we consider the contraction trend of latest 10 years (5 ha / year), the end is early to 2045. But the trend of the last 3 years is even more alarming (9 ha / year) and could lead to the disappearance of a large part of the glacier already in 2031“.

The rapid contraction of the glaciers and the repetition of extreme events find an epicenter, the scholars explain, in the municipality of Rocca pietore, at the foot of La Marmolada, the area most affected by storm Vaia 2018, awarded the Green Flag of Legambiente for the commitment to restore the damage produced. To publicize research activities and raise awareness about the effects of climate change, the Museum of Geography of the Department of Historical, Geographical and Antiquity Sciences launched the initiative “Let’s measure the Marmolada glacier together” in 2019, a glaciological campaign Investee included within the Legambiente Glacier Caravan.