The map of regions at risk of blockade with the new Dpcm

Not a new national blockade for the fight against the pandemic, but three areas with three different risk scenarios, “with increasingly restrictive measures.” And a new system of rules, an automatic mechanism that provides for the classification of regions based on epidemiological data. It is the heart of the new Dpcm anti Covid, which should come into force on Wednesday, November 4, as announced by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte in a report today to the House.

The new Dpcm and Conte’s words

The prime minister explained that the country “will be divided into three areas based on risk scenarios that take into account the evaluations of the ISS and the Higher Health Council, based on 21 parameters (including the number of symptomatic cases, hospitalizations, RSA cases, the percentage of positive swabs, the average time between symptoms and diagnosis, number of new outbreaks, bed occupancy based on actual availability). So it is a very complex system. “

“According to the parameters established by the ISS, the epidemiological picture described is in the transition phase towards scenario 4 Conte added. A widely severe epidemiological picture with specificity in some regions and autonomous provinces. The rapid increase in incidence is consistent with the increase in national RT. In some regions, the figure is higher than the national average. There is a high probability that some regions will exceed the critical threshold in terms of intensive and sub-intensive care in the next month. “

Therefore, the prevention structure developed by the ISS with the Ministry of Health and shared with the Conference of the Regions, “obliges us to intervene in a much more focused way, to restrict and relax measures at the territorial level, based on thresholds of criticality. For this, the next dpcm will identify 3 areas depending on the level of risk, “said the premier.

How the “three risk areas” mechanism works and what is scenario 4

Scenario 4 is defined in a report prepared by the Higher Institute of Health and the ministry in the plan “Prevention and response to Covid-19” and it foresees the “situation of uncontrolled communicability with criticality in the health system in the short term, with regional values ​​of Rt systematically and significantly higher than 1.5”. Stage 4 is subdivided into three bands or risk areas:

• high / very high for more than three consecutive weeks and unmanageable situation (“red”);
• high / very high for less than three consecutive weeks (“orange”);
• moderate (“green” area).

The Rt index (read “err with you”) is a parameter that measures the potential transmissibility of an infectious disease. It represents the average number of infections produced by each infected individual after the application of containment measures. However, it is not the only criterion to determine the entry of a region to scenario 4. For this, says the Plan prepared by the Higher Institute of Health, “a high incidence of cases and clinical severity must be registered, with sustained pressure on patients. prevention and assistance services departments of the different regions ”. There are currently thirteen regions that are above the Rt threshold of 1.5. And two regions pass level 2:

• Piedmont (2.16)
• Lombardy (2.09)
• Calabria (1.66)
• Emilia Romagna (1.63)
• Friuli Venezia Giulia (1.5)
• Straight (1.51)
• Liguria (1.54)
• Molise (1.86)
• Bolzano Province (1.96)
• Province of Trento (1.5)
• Apulia (1.65)
• Umbria (1.67)
• Aosta Valley (1.89)

Conte explained today that to establish the classification of a region in one of the risk areas of scenario 4 there are twenty-one criteria, based on which a “risk coefficient” will be defined. Among these criteria, the premier explained, are “the number of symptomatic cases, hospitalizations, RSA cases, the percentage of positive swabs, the mean time between symptoms and diagnosis, the number of new outbreaks, the use of beds based on actual availability “.

The automatic mechanism of the three risk areas

And who will have to establish that a region is in one band or another? The Ministry of Health will determine it, based on a weekly monitoring of the Higher Institute of Health (which is published every Friday afternoon), in coordination with the president of the region himself. “The inclusion of a region in one of the three areas, with the consequent automatic activation of the planned measures, will be carried out with an order from the Minister of Health,” Conte explained today.

The new Dpcm of November, the “soft” closure and the curfew throughout Italy

According to weekly epidemiological data, therefore, the entry and exit mechanism in one or another category will be automatic, as well as the activation of the measures that will be triggered, progressively, at the entrance of a region in a band . . The government will have to discuss with the regions, specifically, the measures that will be triggered in the different bands and that will be more rigid and restrictive in the transition from the orange to the red zone. For the “green zone” regions, the measures announced by the Prime Minister in the new Dpcm at the national level should be applied (evening curfew, shopping centers closed on weekends, reduction of public transport capacity to 50%) .

The map of regions at risk of blockade with the new Dpcm

We will have to wait for the new Dpcm to know in detail the measures to be followed related to the belonging of a region to the zones / bands of higher risk. And at the moment it cannot be determined if there are regions that would already fall into the red area. However, there are some areas where Rt, the virus’s replication rate, is well above 1.5 – these are the areas that the eyes focus on at these times.

Today in Italy the risk map, writes Michele Bocci in The Republic, “contains” also Trieste and Caltanissetta, Brindisi and Bolzano. In four provinces of Emilia – Modena, Reggio-Emilia, Ferrara and Ravenna – the RT is above 1.5. The province of Rieti has a Rt greater than 1.5. But there are so many provinces with Rt dancing between 1.25 and 1.5 that it is impossible to make drastic decisions based solely on this index. In Lombardy only one province, Bergamo, has a Rt between 1.25 and 1.5. All the others are above 1.5. Treviso and Rovigo in Veneto have a Rt greater than 1.5. In Calabria, the provinces of Cosenza, Catanzaro and Reggio Calabria have a Rt greater than 1.5, as well as Brindisi in Puglia and Enna and Caltanissetta in Sicily. The 1.5 altitude also exceeded in Trentino Alto Adige and in Trieste in Friuli Venezia Giulia.

In the crosshairs, majority parliamentary sources tell the AdnKronos news agency, there would be:

• Lombardy, Piedmont and Calabria, considered by the latest weekly report of the ISS Regions at high risk with, respectively, an Rt index of 2.01, 1.99 and 1.84, so much so that they fall into the so-called scenario 4;
• then there are the moderate risk regions such as Molise (Rt 2.01), Bolzano (Rt 1.92), Emilia Romagna (Rt 1.6) and Trento (Rt 1.56);
• in scenario 3 with a defined high risk, then there would be Puglia (Rt 1.47), Sicily (Rt 1.38) Tuscany (Rt 1.19);
• Friuli Venezia Giulia (Rt 1.47), Umbria (1.45) Lazio (1.43) Marche (1.35) and Campania (1.29) fall in the same scenario but with moderate risk.

(Credit infographic: Il Fatto Quotidiano)