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A complex and serious situation, but less explosive than in March and April. Professor Carlo La Vecchia, Professor of Epidemiology at the University of Milan, bases the dramatic analyzes regarding the number of positives, although in strong growth, and judges the sick in critical but not serious conditions, the true health emergency.
Is the viral load of positives today likely to be much higher than in the summer months?
«Yes, it is a hypothesis that is maintained: there are individuals who transmit the virus much more easily than others, bearing in mind, however, that even the” predisposition “to become infected changes. Large-scale viral load measurement still requires sophisticated and expensive technologies. Furthermore, the multiplication of the virus’s RNA molecules varies from one subject to another; for example, there are asymptomatic people with a very high viral load. Therefore, it is difficult, on a scientific basis, to correlate the high viral load with the number of hospitalizations. ”
When, on the other hand, is it crucial to know it?
“Measuring viral load is important for long-term positive patients, after several swabs still forced at home: when evaluating it, it is established whether the risk of contagion persists or not.”
How do you assess the evolution of the disease in the last period?
“The spread and outcomes of the disease are very different from March: we have a vastly higher number of positives but a limited number of intensive care hospitalizations, as well as the number of deaths is limited (again relative to March and April ) for Covid ».
What is the Achilles heel of the hospital system?
“The really urgent problem is of medium intensity, patients with significant but not severe symptoms. We do not have an effective general medical system like the German one that takes care of these people. As Professor Remuzzi points out, peripheral hospitals with 2 to 300 beds are needed, earmarked for these admissions. This would greatly help intensive care. ‘
The Deputy Minister of Health, Sileri, said yesterday that the real problem is contact tracing. Agree?
“As an epidemiologist, I say absolutely no: now there are too many cases to be considered a useful tool against the virus. It’s just no longer strategic beyond certain numbers. “
“At the national level, we have time in our favor, that is, several weeks before they enter a critical situation: there are 5,400 places ready and another 3,000 available. The “beds are already full” claim means that all seats created exclusively for Covid patients are taken. The difference is obvious: in April we had 4,000 intensive therapies committed.
What tools do we lack to manage less serious cases?
“Hundreds of Usca have yet to open (Special continuity care units, ed). Deaths occur from respiratory failure: assessing the disease in the first phase is essential to better manage it and not confuse hospitals. “
His recommendations for citizens?
“I want to repeat it: the situation is serious but in general less serious than the spring, however it should not be underestimated. I think I can say that Italians use personal protections and respect ordinances satisfactorily, they are aware of the danger. Here: we need the same approach with friends and family, that is, avoid seeing them, remaining only in our own family. And even if sad to say, it is necessary not to visit the elderly so as not to put them at risk. In contrast, workplaces and transport, so often questioned, are well regulated ”.
October 22, 2020 (change October 22, 2020 | 07:26)
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