the hypothesis of the red zone of Italy and the decisive date of November 15

The whole of Italy could become the red zone in what doctors have called a total lockdown as of November 15 if a significant decrease in the coronavirus epidemic does not come after the last Dpcm. For now it is a hypothesis while the forecasts for the growth of positives and the collapse of hospitals say that the decline should arrive these days.

Total blockade: the hypothesis of the red zone of Italy and the decisive date of November 15

Let’s go in order. Yesterday it was the turn of Abruzzo, Basilicata, Liguria, Tuscany and Umbria: the five regions became the orange zone after Report 25 of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità that certified the worsening of the circulation indicators of Sars-CoV-2 and health situation in their territories. As widely predicted, the Ministry of Health ordinance – which will come into effect as of tomorrow, Wednesday, November 11 – certified a grip that had been in the air for a few days and was only postponed due to the “difficulty” of some regions in sending data to health authorities. Below, summarized by the Ansa news agency, are the main measures planned for each of the three risk bands linked to the Covid-19 pandemic and into which Italy will be divided until December 3 as a result of the last Dpcm . Across the country, the curfew begins at 10 p.m.

• red zone: the most restrictive measures provided for by the Dpcm are applied. Leaving home must be motivated, bars, restaurants, shops are closed, dad is expected from seventh grade onwards. It is forbidden to move from one municipality to another, as well as to leave or enter the region. Self-certification is also back for travel within a city;
• orange zone: Restaurants and bars are closed all day. The stores remain open. Only dad is expected in high school. Circulation within a municipality is allowed but it is not allowed to leave the municipality of residence, domicile or domicile. Entering or leaving the Region is prohibited.
• yellow zone: the “softer” restrictive measures established by the Dpcm are applied. Restaurants and bars are open until 6:00 p.m., shops remain open until closing time. Shopping centers are closed on weekends. It is possible to move within the Region and from one Yellow Region to another.

Meanwhile, yesterday the Civil Protection bulletin reported 25,271 new infected with 147,725 tampons and 356 deaths in addition to 115 more hospitalized in intensive care. The curve continues to worry and the positive / buffer percentage remains substantially stable, from 17.06% yesterday to 17.1% yesterday. The situation in Campania remains in the balance, which will be decided today: according to rumors coming from the Region, Vincenzo De Luca’s territory should remain in the yellow zone, while in Rome he is expected to move into the orange or even red zone. Yesterday the Ministry of Health sent the carabinieri from the Anti-Sophistication Unit to recheck the data.

A general blockade for Italy from November 15 or 20?

Meanwhile, calls for further adjustment are multiplying. The invitations come from the Gimbe Foundation, the Association of Hospital Resuscitators (Aaroi), the presidency of the Federation of Medical Orders, and regional nursing organizations. A government source explains to the Agi news agency that the situation will be monitored in the next 10 days. If there were further deterioration and several regions passed into the red zone, consequent more restrictive measures, as well as a general blockade, would not be excluded.

The first request for full closure came Sunday from Filippo Anelli, president of the National Federation of Medical Orders. But yesterday the hospital front is compacted: according to Carlo Palermo, national secretary of Anaao Assomed, the hospital’s doctors’ union, the closure should last from 6 to 8 weeks: “We arrived tremendously late and we can no longer witness this rebound of responsibility.” between Regions and government. “The risk, if we continue with this trend, is to return to the difficult situation of having to decide who to intubate and who not, in fact returning to war medicine. The figures, Palermo argues, absolutely justify the closure: the same call also came from the president of the Association of Hospital Anesthetists (Aaroi) Alessandro Vergallo. “Admissions to the ICU will double in the next week” and the risk of a blockage is closer than ever, says the doctor. “If we didn’t have such a weakened economy, we would have to shut down because the hospitals are overloaded.”

But, and this is the novelty, the hypothesis of a total or generalized blockade is also on the government’s table. the Corriere della Sera explains today that concern is growing in the executive, monitoring the epidemiological curve and thinking about the need for even more severe measures, such as the closure of restaurants on Saturdays and Sundays for lunch and the suspension of some commercials. got exemptions in the red zones. The division is always what we explained on Today.it in mid-October: a wing of the government that goes from the Democratic Party to Liberi e Uguali would like more restrictive measures to be implemented immediately; on the other hand there is Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte who has already publicly contradicted himself on several occasions (such as when he launched the Dpcm on October 25 on Sunday after having denied the need to do so throughout the week) and would not want to launch harsher measures as its popularity is waning and the economy suffers.

A decisive date: November 15

too The impression he writes today that the government would be ready to proclaim a national shutdown as soon as the weekend if the growth of infections did not begin to stop. In this sense, the decisive date is November 15. Next Sunday will have passed the time necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of the Dpcm for October and early November: the newspaper says that if in five days the epidemiological curve has not reversed its course, the most likely hypothesis is to bring all the data. Regions in the red zone. Hypothesis, for now, not certainties. However, they will not be so only based on the number of positives, since the saturation of the hospitals could arrive before the descent of the curve.

Last week’s report counted by Corriere says that the decisive date will be mid-November: “The percentage between swabs and positives marks 17.2%, compared to 16.1% yesterday, but in line with what was forecast. by our curves from which a weaker start of growth (but still growth) is expected for November 9. As of November 15, there could be a real decrease if the beneficial effects of the last Dpcm occur “. If this does not happen, we will reach the end: “To obtain a more effective flattening of the global contagion curve, it is absolutely opportune to implement new measures that can superimpose the first positive effects of the recent ones.”

Meanwhile, yesterday it sounds on Sky TG24 Timeline explaining what may happen: “The lockdown may represent an important response to the need to block the curve because the data tells us that if it does not cool down, in 30 days we will have around 30 thousand more people in hospital, resuscitations would exceed 5,000 occupied places and even, if the trend were that of last week, we could count 10,000 more deaths. We cannot afford this, we must evaluate something to do “.