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A “reinforced” yellow zone with limitations by red and orange zones on weekends or the proclamation of the orange zone (and possibly also red) in some regions directly from January 7 with an ordinance of the Ministry of Health, without waiting the expiration of the decree law and the Dpcm on January 15 This is the government’s plan for the end of the holidays that, according to the newspapers, should be arranged in the next few hours with a meeting of the heads of delegation, although there are those who write that the measure could be activated from 8 o’clock if the Institute’s monitoring. Superiore di Sanità should not be available at the right time. Then everything would be absorbed by the legislative intervention of the government in the middle of the month.
Red, orange and yellow zone “strengthened” in the regions: the government plan for January 7
With order. The Civil Protection Bulletin yesterday reported 11,831 new positive cases of coronavirus but with just 67,000 swabs: a figure that makes the positive rate jump to 17.61%, as in November. Daily fact reports today that when calculated in the people examined, excluding the control swabs, it reached 38.85%. The Rt contagion index has been growing for three weeks and three regions are above 1, namely Veneto, Liguria and Calabria, while Lombardy, Puglia and Basilicata are just below. The newspaper adds that the estimates of the statistician Livio Fenga indicate around 600 thousand cases in total at the end of January, compared to 577 thousand today. And there are at least 14 regions where estimates indicate a resumption of infections, starting with Veneto.
The survey shows an upward trend in the autonomous provinces of Trento and Bolzano, in Veneto, Emilia Romagna, Lazio, Marche and Umbria. For the mathematician from Cnr, Giovanni Sebastiani, the hope is that “the recovery will be mitigated by the effects of the measures introduced on Christmas Eve, the effects of which will be seen in the second week of January.” According to the expert “it would be prudent to see the trend in the data and only then decide whether to reopen the schools.”
Now all eyes are on the report of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità and the ministry, which is generally published on Fridays, but in the week of Christmas and New Years it was brought forward to Thursday (with the progress of the draft already finished in the newspapers on day before). There are those who have predicted the arrival of monitoring already on January 5, or Tuesday, and the hypothesis is not ruled out for a matter of time: 6 will be the last day of the red zone in all of Italy decided by Legislative Decree 172/2020, in theory, the next day all regions should return to the yellow zone (including Abruzzo, as confirmed by government sources yesterday). If the government wants to act to enact a mini-squeeze, it could do so by then.
The Ansa news agency writes that next week, if the new monitoring confirms these trends, Minister Roberto Speranza could have new orange areas, just red. Meanwhile, technicians from the ministry and the Higher Institute of Health are also working on some adjustments to the 21 parameters and thresholds set in the October document (“Prevention and response to Covid-19: evolution of the strategy and planning in the phase transition for the autumn-winter period “) to enable restrictive measures even when Rt exceeds 1 slightly and for short periods, but with a high incidence of new cases. It seems like an idea tailor-made for Veneto, which has always remained “yellow”. In any case, any changes must be shared with the Regions. And the president of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità Silvio Brusaferro confirms the need for new measures in an interview with Corriere: “We will see the data on the impact of the epidemic in relation to this period in mid-January. Today the daily numbers and the incidence it continues to be more than 50 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the seven days, and the margin of resilience of the health system is narrow. Therefore, mitigation measures cannot be dispensed with “.
The orange zone in three regions and the yellow zone strengthened in the rest of Italy
But at what level of RT would the closures activate? Today the orange zone starts from 1.25, the red from 1.5: the parameters could be reduced to 1 and 1.25 respectively. If so, explain today RepublicAccording to data from last Wednesday, at least three regions would immediately end up in the orange zone: Calabria, Liguria and Veneto) which would also be projected towards the red in the subsequent monitoring, while another three would be in the balance because they exceed 1 but not in the extreme. lower than the bifurcation (Basilicata, Lombardia and Puglia) and another three would be candidates for restrictions with next week’s data, already dancing just below the threshold of 1 (Emilia-Romagna, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Marche). In this portion of Italy, bars and restaurants would be closed and inter-municipal movements would be prohibited. The alternate plan is the enhanced yellow zone:
The vacation model will be borrowed by establishing a national red zone for one month (until the first week of February) on holidays and the day before. Therefore, shops closed, restaurants, bars, traffic prohibited except for justified reasons.
An effort that would also serve to bring the bad start of the vaccination campaign at full speed, too slow (from Calabria to Lombardy, the percentages are still very low).
This will be accompanied by new limits on regional movements for everyone and, perhaps, limitations on the opening hours of some commercial activities throughout the country.
For now, the plan foresees that the curfew will remain fixed at 10:00 p.m.: only in the yellow zones, restaurants and bars will be able to serve tables until 6:00 p.m. Swimming pools, gyms, cinemas and theaters will be closed. On the other hand, exhibitions and museums could reopen with limited tickets. According to Corriere della Sera instead, the government’s plan could be activated on January 8, when some regions could switch bands and turn orange or it could spread throughout Italy – thus also in the yellow band regions – some of the holiday restrictions until January 15: closing of bars and restaurants even for lunch and prohibition of crossing the borders of the municipality and region with the derogation for work, health or need and urgency with self-certification: the derogation to travel in two to visit It could also be valid to relatives or friends:
Also in this case, the extension could be worth one week to reach the expiration of the Dpcm and re-evaluate the entire system of measures and regulations to be put into effect.
In conclusion, the “candidate” regions for the orange zone after January 6 are Veneto, Liguria and Calabria, while in the rest are Lombardy, Puglia and Basilicata. The Ministers of Health, Hope and Regional Affairs Francesco Boccia work around this hypothesis, together with the head of delegation of the Democratic Party, Dario Franceschini.
Il Messaggero writes that the revision of the procedure to bring the regions to the red, orange and yellow zone could be revised as of January 8 and that the technicians propose the hypothesis of reducing the value of RT that provides the countermeasures to 1.1, however, when compared with the incidence, that is, the number of new positive cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days. The epidemic under control foresees that the parameter remains below 50: “today Italy is at 305, Veneto at 968, Lazio at 285, Abruzzo at 168, Umbria in 196, Marche at 293, Campania at 179 and Emilia-Romagna at 412 “.
