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The blow to the Italian economy was “unprecedented” but for the minister Roberto Gualtieri An exit path is observed with a higher than expected rebound in GDP in the third quarter and a fall at the end of the year “not in double digits” as some estimates feared. Speaking to the audience, in the room and virtual, of the Forum Cernobbio, the minister maintains his reservations due to the evolution of the pandemic and, nevertheless, says that he is confident in a recovery path for our country also thanks to the resources of the Recovery Fund for which we are working “quickly and well”.
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GDP rebound
The Minister of Employment, Nunzia Catalfo, is also cautious with the optimism for employment, according to which in autumn-winter “we expect a recovery”. Gualtieri assures that the mass of investments in Brussels “will not be dispersed”, thus responding to the incisive appeal made on the eve of the Forum by the President of the Republic Mattarella and will put Italy back on a more sustainable path than before COVID-19 when you discount low growth, low birth rates, and low spending on research, education, and technology. On the minister’s desk, Gualtieri admits that “there are a lot of very high projects” but “it is a positive fact” and many are complex and should be organized organically into measurable objectives precisely in those areas of greatest weakness in the country. And if economic growth starts again, there will also be room for that much-invoked tax reform. The EU commissioner, Gentiloni, warned not to use European resources directly and the minister explains that growth will progressively allow “a fiscal reform that will be financed structurally by combating tax evasion and reforming the tax deduction system.” environmental “. The minister is in favor of a system” to the German style “, explains later in the party Il Fatto, but it is still working in which it will be necessary to take into account several factors.
Over the next few months, until resources materialize EU In 2021, the government still estimates a normalization of the panorama, also waiting for the arrival of the vaccine. After the rebound in the third quarter, also driven by massive public intervention, in the fourth the outlook “is positive but cautious,” says the minister. Therefore, it will be worse than the -8% of the April Def but not the -14% estimated by the OECD, it will be “single digits” if the minister is unbalanced. In the update note of the Def (Nadef), which will be published at the end of September, the precise forecast will be included and there will be “the aggregate composition, articulation and planning of investments and reforms” for the next years as of 2021. ” within the framework of a medium-term budgetary strategy, which will also indicate a “sustainable and solid” path of decreasing the debt / GDP ratio. A breath of fresh air will also arrive for the labor market: The data that the Ministry of Jobs are positive – explains Minister Catalfo – on the 600 thousand jobs lost by seasonal workers and by those who worked mainly in the tourism sector, we are registering a recovery, we have two hundred and thirty thousand more hires ».» Unioncamere figures – he points out – They tell us that 310,000 new hires are expected in September and October. We are registering and advancing towards a recovery in the productive and labor sectors “.
Last updated: 19:18
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