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The epidemic does not slow down, or rather: not what one would expect and would be necessary. There are 18,727 coronavirus cases recorded in the last 24 hours out of 190,416 swabs processed. Yesterday there were 16,999 infections, but almost 19,000 fewer tests were analyzed. The positivity rate drops to just under 10%. A week ago, there were 24,099 new cases and more than 212,000 swabs. If we take the cases registered between Monday and Friday, the variation with respect to the last 4 weeks is equal to -46%, as Lorenzo Ruffino points out on Twitter. Swabs, on the other hand, decreased by 28%.
- This week: 77,044
- last week: 103,760
- two weeks ago: 129,370
- three weeks ago: 167,245
- four weeks ago: 172,210
Cases between Monday and Friday
– this week: 77,044
– last week: 103,760
– two weeks ago: 129,370
– three weeks ago: 167,245
– four weeks ago: 172,210Change from the average of the last four weeks
– almost: -46%
– buffers: -28%– Lorenzo Ruffino (@Ruffino_Lorenzo) December 11, 2020
The number of hospitalized patients with symptoms continues to decline (-526), while the balance between entries and exits in intensive care units is equal to -26.
But as we have already explained on other occasions, to have a clearer idea of the situation it may be better to rely on the data of IT inputs net of outputs Civil protection He began communicating on December 3. Admissions for the day are 208, down from 251 yesterday, but still higher than those of previous days (note: the Campania Region has never provided daily data on intensive care admissions).
- December 11, 208
- December 10, 251
- December 9, 152
- December 8, 192
- December 7, 144
- December 6, 150
- December 5, 192
- December 4, 201
- December 3, 217
Is it the fault of the “usual” notification delays or is there something else? As for Covid victims, the number is still very high: 761 deaths recorded in the last 24 hours after yesterday’s peak of 887 victims.
As pointed out Davide torlo On Twitter, if we take the deaths registered between Monday and Friday, the variation with respect to the average of the last 4 weeks is equal to -5%. Therefore, the decline is very slight.
Deaths between Monday and Friday
- This week: 3,309
- last week: 3,948
- two weeks ago: 3,854
- three weeks ago: 3,340
- four weeks ago: 2,745
As for the positive rate of swabs (today at 9.8%, the curve is substantially stable.
- this week: 10.4%
- last week: 10.8%
(The data refer to the cases registered between Monday and Friday).
But if we take the number of cases analyzed (i.e., net of control swabs) compared to last week, there was even a slight increase.
- this week: 24.6%
- last week: 24.4%
- two weeks ago: 25.7%
- three weeks ago: 28.7%
- four weeks ago: 27.6%
The descent is slow (and the signs are not good)
What’s going on? In “Predicting is better than cure,” an authoritative Big Data analysis page on the SARS-CoV2 pandemic, yesterday they explained that the signals coming from the curves are not exactly positive. “We are always in reverse phase: on November 9 we were talking about decline while everyone was talking about saturation, stabilization of infections and plateaus, when instead we were at the top. Today everyone talks about a reduction and flexibility of the measures, while on the other hand, as we highlighted 6 days ago, the brake on the decline of new daily infections is maintained and that is not a good sign ”.
“Punctual as clockwork – reads the post – there is also a slowdown in the decline in IT and hospitalizations. All confirmed by the national, regional and provincial Rt indices that are located in a constant value that is no longer decreasing, but a slight increase ”. According to the estimates of Davide Tosi, Alice Schiavone and Alessandro Riva, professors at the University of Insubria, in the period between November 29 and December 9, the RT grew again, albeit slightly, reaching 0.9.
Data that contrast with those recently communicated by the Higher Institute of Health, which however refer to the period November 18-December 1. “L ‘Rt mean calculated on symptomatic cases is equal to 0.82 “, the report reads. In the previous follow-up theRt it was 0.91. “Values of Rt punctual less than 1 in 20 regions and autonomous provinces. Of these, 19 have a Rt spot less than one even at its highest credibility range, indicating a significant decrease in transferability. “
Coronavirus: Are infections increasing at the end of January?
The truth is that 18 thousand infections and hundreds of deaths a day are not a good viaticum for the Christmas holidays. According to Andrea Crisanti, there could be a further increase in cases “towards the end of January, probably with the reopening of schools.”
“If we return with absolute freedom of movement and reopen the school, we will not have the tools” to prevent the third wave, explained the visiting virologist of Un Giorno da Pecora, on Rai Radio1. “Until January 7, when schools must reopen, I think the cases will decrease again. Christmas will count relatively little, these days of movement and great mobility count.” The third wave will be there, “unless measures are implemented more restrictive. ”Which one?“ The chill of school entrances – suggests Crisanti – or the imposition of the Fpp2 mask on buses. ”As for Christmas,“ you don’t have to mix families, that’s the problem and what to avoid. If there is a family group of 8 people living together, it is not a problem “.
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