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I am 14,844 coronavirus cases registered in Italy in the last 24 hours on a total of 162,880 swabs processed (diagnosis and control). Compared to yesterday, infections are therefore increasing, but against about 60,000 more tests. Let’s start with the good news: the positive / cushion ratio finally falls significantly, settling at 9.1% from yesterday’s 11.6. Actually, the good news ends here: just take the contagion data from last Tuesday (14,842 out of 149,232 swabs), to realize that if there is a slowdown it is very slight. If we examine the cases registered between Monday and Tuesday, the variation with respect to the average of the last four weeks is -37%, while the number of swabs has decreased by 16%. But as is clear from the data posted on Twitter by Lorenzo Ruffino, compared to last week, the trend of infections seems substantially stable.
Cases between Monday and Tuesday
- this week: 26,874
- last week: 28,562
- two weeks ago: 35,727
- three weeks ago: 46,162
- four weeks ago: 59,545
Cases between Monday and Tuesday
– this week: 26,874
– Last week: 28,562
– two weeks ago: 35,727
– three weeks ago: 46,162
– four weeks ago: 59,545Change from the average of the last four weeks
– almost: -37%
– buffers: -16%– Lorenzo Ruffino (@Ruffino_Lorenzo) December 15, 2020
However, to get a clearer idea, we will have to wait for the numbers in the next few days.
But what is even more worrying is the death curve (today 846). If we take the number of victims registered between Monday and Tuesday, compared to last week, the trend is uniform, as Davide Torlo pointed out on Twitter.
- this week: 1,337
- last week: 1,162
- two weeks ago: 1,457
- three weeks ago: 1,483
- four weeks ago: 1,235
What’s going on? Virologists and epidemiologists have been repeating for some time that the death curve follows the others, but with a delay of about two weeks. The number of infections and hospitalizations began to decline (albeit very slowly) around November 25, but the number of deaths remains dramatically high. And the total number of victims has reached 65,857.
Some positive signs come from hospitals. Patients with symptoms are reduced by 423, while the balance between entries and exits in intensive care units is -92. However, if we take the net admissions data (hence net deaths and healings) we realize that there is very little to rejoice in.
Not only is there a fairly significant increase compared to yesterday (blamed for the usual notification delays?), But looking at the data from December 3 to today, it is easy to see that there has been no decrease.
- December 15, 199
- December 14, 138
- December 13, 152
- December 12, 195
- December 11, 208
- December 10, 251
- December 9, 152
- December 8, 192
- December 7, 144
- December 6, 150
- December 5, 192
- December 4, 201
- December 32
Di Perri’s infectious disease specialist: “The decline is slower than expected”
That there is something wrong also clearly says Giovanni Di Perri, responsible for infectious diseases at the Amedeo di Savoia hospital in Turin. “This is certainly not the descent of the first wave of Covid-19” says the white coat reached by AdnKronos. “The lockdown has not been the same and we are seeing a slow decline, perhaps more than expected. Veneto is increasing again. Unfortunately, we are still at stake. There is less demand than before for Covid treatments, the total number of new infections. are decreasing. Beds are clearing, although unfortunately this was also affected by the large number of deaths we have had. It will take time. In the wards we still have many sick people, we are still in the phase where we sacrifice many wards , the medical specialties. Assistance on other fronts is clearly reduced and we know what that meant in the first wave “.
Therefore, the image is not positive. This second wave of Sars-CoV-2 has “risen slowly and is falling slowly – says Adnkronos Health specialist – Times will still be long enough. Of course we also consider that, with the protections in place, it may be that the flu this year will be less impressive in terms of volume of work. That is what we sincerely hope, and if so it could rebalance the commitment that is needed at this time. “In Piedmont today” those of us who deal with infectious diseases are full and we will be the last to empty ourselves. But in general there are hospitals where surgery and internal medicine have been sacrificed and it will be necessary to be able to empty them as soon as possible. “
Today’s Bulletin December 15, 2020
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