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In the last seven days, 154,954 new cases of positivity to the coronavirus have been registered in Italy, 23% less than the previous week. The slowdown in the total contagion curve continues, with the number of new cases returning to that of the week before the main restrictions of the second wave, decided in early November.
However, the number of deaths has not yet started to decline, which between last Friday and Thursday was 5,188, with the record of deaths announced in a single day: 993, on Thursday. A slowdown in the increase in deaths can be observed, which are known to follow a trend lagged by a couple of weeks compared to that of infections. Therefore, we can expect that from next week they will begin to slowly decline.
On Thursday, announcing the restrictions that will be in force during the Christmas holidays, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said that the measures agreed with the Prime Minister’s Decree of early November that had divided the regions into three different risk bands, associated with different restrictions and the colors red, orange and yellow work. It is a system that is proving to be effective, “Conte said, adding that” if it continues in this way, it is reasonable to predict that in a few weeks, and therefore close to the Christmas holidays, all regions will be yellow. ” The latest bulletin of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità says that R.t calculated on symptomatic cases between November 4 and 17 is 1.08, compared to 1.18 registered a week earlier.
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The total hospitalized for COVID-19, after reaching its peak on November 23, has fallen quite steadily, as have those in intensive care, still standing at almost 3,600 and above the 30 threshold. % of total beds available largely. of the regions. According to updated data from the National Agency for Regional Health Services, the region with the highest rate of intensive care saturation is Lombardy with 60% (last week it was 64%), followed by Piedmont, with 58%. (again it was 64% last week). Compared to last week, the number of people admitted to intensive care has decreased in many regions, and even a lot: those in which it has increased are Emilia-Romagna (+13), Lazio (+12), Liguria (+12 ), Friuli Venezia Giulia (+4), Veneto (+3), province of Trento (+2) and Molise (+1).
The region that registered the most deaths compared to the population in the last seven days was Valle d’Aosta, where there were 17.5 per 100,000 inhabitants (they were 27.7 the previous week), followed by Friuli-Venezia Giulia with 16, 5 (here they increased instead: they were 13.2). Then there are Lombardy with 14.1 (it was 11.9) and Piedmont with 13.2 (it was 12.5).
Weekly cases decreased almost everywhere, except in Friuli Venezia Giulia, in the province of Trento and in Puglia.
Regional trends can be clearly seen on this map, which highlights how in Friuli cases have increased less than in the province of Trento, but with a much higher incidence in the population. The most visible improvements, on the other hand, were recorded in Lombardy and Tuscany, where the incidence on the population is among the lowest in Italy (only Calabria and Sardinia have lower values). Even in Valle d’Aosta, despite a greater circulation of the virus, cases are 34% less than last week.
At the national level, the rate of positive buffers, that is, those that are positive of the total manufactured, continues to decline: it is a good sign. It is a partial indicator, but when it exceeds a certain threshold it shows that the test operations are concentrated in people who already present symptoms, and that they reach less and less the asymptomatic who therefore escape the counts and especially the patients. contact tracking.
However, it is not a uniform figure. In Veneto, for example, this week the average positivity rate was 19% (last week it was 20%), and it was also high in Puglia (17%), in Marche and in the province of Bolzano.
By combining the data from the two previous maps in a single graph, the trend of the regions can be summarized. The highest are those that have registered an increase in cases compared to last week, the lowest are those that have fallen the most, obviously in percentage. The rightmost regions are those in which the incidence in the population continues to be higher, while the size of the circles is proportional to the positive rate of the swabs. Finally, the color corresponds to the epidemiological risk in which the region is classified, and therefore to the restrictive measures in force (the most rigid in red). The best position on the chart is therefore in the lower left, with a small circle; the worst in the upper right corner.
It can be seen that the red zone regions tend to be in the lower left quadrant, a sign that the measures have been effective, with the exception of the province of Bolzano where the impact on the population is still very high. Veneto, Friuli Venezia Giulia and the province of Bolzano are those in which, according to these indicators, the situation is worst.
Deepening in the territorial analysis of the epidemic, the province with the most infections per inhabitant in the last two weeks has become that of Belluno, which reflects how things in the northeast are worse than in the rest of northern Italy. Infections per 100,000 inhabitants were 1,188, however less than last week (1,274). Followed by Como (1,170) and Varese (1,080). In Gorizia (1,071) and Udine (1,027), instead of decreasing, the incidence in the population increased.
In the Center, the province with the most infections per 100,000 inhabitants in the last two weeks was Rieti (839, a little less than a week ago), followed by L’Aquila (805, improving). In the south were the province of Foggia (737, 11% more than last week) and Naples (702, 25% less than last week).
The number of tampons reported this week is again lower than the previous: 1,372,173, out of 623,671 different people. According to the ISS report, in the period between November 9 and 22, the cases of positivity discovered with screening operations, that is, with swabs performed on certain categories considered at risk, such as healthcare workers, were 28.3%; those discovered with contact tracing were 20.5%; those discovered because the patient had symptoms, 34.3% (unknown in 16.9% of cases).
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