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The clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh, a separatist territory located in Azerbaijan but controlled by Armenia, started again a few days ago. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict erupted in the early 1990s and has never really ended. The clashes between the Armenian and Azerbaijani armies periodically resume (the last in 2012 and 2016), but are almost always low intensity and are resolved within a few weeks.
In recent days, however, the fighting has been more violent. At least 84 people were killed, including some civilians, and both armies used artillery, heavy vehicles and mobilized reservists, a sign that the fighting could be more extensive and intense than in previous years.
One reason the fighting could be more serious this time is that some regional powers, notably Turkey, intervened in the conflict, which could widen and transform from a dispute over a mountainous area in the southern Caucasus to something more. big. .
Nagorno-Karabakh is a territory of about 11 thousand square kilometers that is located within Azerbaijan but whose population is mainly Armenian and Christian (the most common religion in Azerbaijan is Shiite Islam). In 1988 it declared its independence, with the support of Armenia: years of very violent ethnic clashes followed, until the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which began in 1992, ended in 1994 and caused at least 30,000 deaths. Additionally, tens of thousands of people were driven from their homes or forced to emigrate. Today Nagorno-Karabakh declares itself an independent state but is not recognized by any country in the world, not even Armenia. In practice, the region is controlled by Armenia, although in the eyes of the international community it would remain part of Azerbaijan.
– Read also: The Nagorno-Karabakh problem
Clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan resumed on Sunday. The two countries accuse each other of opening fire and it is not yet clear who did it first. It is known with certainty that preparations were going on for some time: the New York Times He said that in recent months there had been many warning signs and many symptoms that a great and serious confrontation was brewing, but that diplomacy did not move in time: “There were all the signs, everything was telling us that a escalation, ”he told Al. Now Olesya Vartanyan, analyst at International Crisis Group. Furthermore, in July there had already been some clashes and at least 16 soldiers had been killed, including an Azerbaijani general. In those days in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, thousands of people had demonstrated to ask the government to regain control of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The most important role in pacification has so far fallen on Russia. Armenia and Azerbaijan are former Soviet countries. Moscow is also one of their main trading partners and sells weapons to them. It is also the main force within the Minsk Process, that is, that group of three countries (in addition to Russia, also the United States and France) that in 1994 negotiated a ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan and that since then has painfully tried and without success, to reach a peace agreement. For the past two decades, it has always been Russia that persuaded the two countries to a ceasefire when fighting resumed.
However, distracted by the Covid-19 health emergency and the crisis in Belarus, this time Moscow did not pay enough attention to what was happening in the Caucasus, the New York Times wrote. Instead, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey intervened, siding with great force in favor of Azerbaijan. Turkey has always supported Azerbaijan politically, but now it also appears ready to provide military aid.
– Read also: Erdogan is successfully exploiting the coronavirus trend in Turkey
In July, after the first limited fighting, the Turkish defense minister said Armenia would “pay” for the deaths of Azerbaijani soldiers. Turkey also sent F-16 fighter jets to Azerbaijan for joint exercises. After the start of the clashes in recent days, Erdogan wrote on Twitter that Armenia is “the greatest threat to peace in the region” and that “the Turkish nation supports the Azerbaijani brothers by all means, as always.”
So on Monday, a day after the fighting started, the Azerbaijani army released a statement announcing, in effect, that it wanted to break the status quo and regain Nagorno-Karabakh: “Azerbaijani units conduct combat operations. to destroy the enemy and liberate our occupied lands. ”Turkish media reported that the Azeris have already used Turkish-made military drones.
The Armenian government on Monday accused Turkey of having sent planes and military advisers to Azerbaijan and, above all, of having sent irregular groups of guerrillas to fight from the territories of Syria under Turkish control. Azerbaijan has denied the allegations, but Reuters spoke with two former Syrian rebels who said they were offered $ 1,500 to go fight in Nagorno-Karabakh. One of the two is part of Ahrar al Sham, a radical Islamist group backed by Turkey. Even the guardian spoke with other Syrian fighters who confirm they will be sent to the region.
Turkey’s intervention in a conflict that until now had been handled almost exclusively by Russia puts Russian President Vladimir Putin in difficulties, because if it is true that Russia tries to maintain a balance and pretends to be an ally of both countries, in reality its strategic position favors Armenia.
Russia has a military base in Armenia and has signed a mutual defense pact that obliges both countries to intervene if the other suffers an attack on their borders. Nagorno-Karabakh is outside of Armenian territory and therefore does not fall within the criteria of the pact, but Armenia has said in recent days that Azerbaijani artillery has also struck within its territory.
Tevan Poghosyan, director of the International Center for Human Development, an think tank based in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, told the Send that “for Russia it is against its interests to allow Turkey to expand too far into the South Caucasus. Today, Armenia is Russia’s only real ally in the area. ‘ However, it is very difficult for Russia to decide to intervene, and for now Moscow is looking for a diplomatic solution. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said Monday that “the important thing now is to stop the fighting and not try to understand who is right and who is wrong.” “Russia has always had a balanced position and has good relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan.”
If the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh ends up also involving Russia and Turkey, one alongside Armenia and the other alongside Azerbaijan, the Caucasus would be the third “proxy war” in which the two regional powers are fighting. opposite sides, then Syria and Libya.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke by phone with the Armenian prime minister and the president of Azerbaijan on Tuesday and called for the fighting to stop immediately. The EU also has an interest in the region: in Azerbaijan, not far from Nagorno-Karabakh, there are important oil and gas pipelines that supply the European market, among others.
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