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Editorial Board
06 November 2020 16:31
“These blockades are for two weeks, although for me it would take longer to flatten the epidemic curve. For example, the blockades in China and here they tell us that we need more time.” He says this to Rai Radio1, guest of Un Giorno da Pecora, Walter Ricciardi, consultant to the Minister of Health Speranza.
“The example we have is that our lockdown lasted two months. The data we have now is even higher than in February / March.”
“I do not want to scare anyone – explains Ricciardi – but probably two weeks is insufficient to stop the curve and certainly will be to reverse it. As happened in Wuhan: when it crashes, the data takes a long time to stabilize and then decrease, normally – he concludes – after two months “.
By closing this Second wave Ricciardi explains that the evaluation will be weekly but his forecast is that it will last at least a month or half a month. At the risk of reaching Christmas. “We must tell the truth – he continues – with the numbers we have for this type of restart it will take time.”
When Ricciardi is not too optimistic about future prospects. “I imagine a prudent Christmas. In some regions, the improved ones, there may be some mobility – he concludes – but I do not recommend that there be crowded dinners, because the circulation of the virus, we hope, is less but it will continue to be present. Let’s say we should have sober and careful celebrations. We have two or three tough months ahead, November and December, and perhaps better January, so I think we will improve, perhaps with the vaccine or a specific therapy. And then also with a better weather season, which helps, because The example gives the possibility of being outdoors. “
So is dinner this Christmas or not?
“The important thing is to arrive calmly,” said Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte when presenting the Dpcm of October 25 and even considering the hypothesis of a 2020 Christmas between hugs and “parties and small parties” decidedly remote. Almost two weeks have passed since then. In the middle there was another Dpcm, Italy divided into red, orange and yellow zones, and the concern that continues to increase, and when in the last days Conte was speaking, he reiterated look to the future realistically. Containing the curve will serve not so much to make us pass Christmas and New Years as if there were no ongoing pandemic but to restart consumption.
