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Alberto Di Majo
Aside from the much-announced tax cut by the majority of Giallorossi, the tax burden will also increase under Conte’s second government. The executive himself writes it in black and white in the update of the document on economics and finance. In 2020 taxes have marked + 0.1% and in 2021 the increase will touch 0.5%, bringing the tax burden to 43% (42.5 this year).
According to government forecasts, there would be a reduction only in 2022 (-0.2%) and in 2023 (-0.4%). Therefore, the Palazzo Chigi in the Nadef approved yesterday tried to blur the increase of these two years considering the entire period, until 2023: “It is expected that the tax burden under current legislation will increase by one tenth of a percentage point in 2020, standing at 42.5 percent. Considering the entire period, it will grow by around 0.1 percentage points, reaching 42.6% in 2023. Net of the measures related to the disbursement of the € 100 benefit, the tax burden would go from 41.8% in 2020 to 41 , 9 percent in 2023. “
Neither will the fight against tax evasion, claimed by the government and used to reduce the tax burden, save us. The forecasts are not good this year. “Unlike previous years, it is immediately observed that the estimated income expected for 2020 is significantly lower than the receipts made in 2019, by about 6,800 million euros,” the government explains in the Note. It is a trend that reflects, he adds, “the effects of the suspension of assessment and control activities by the Tax Administration during the emergency situation linked to the pandemic shock.” Therefore, the money recovered “cannot contribute to feeding the Fund for the reduction of the tax burden. Therefore, no additional resources will be entered into the aforementioned Fund for the reduction of the tax burden at the time of preparing the 2021 budget bill ”.
On the other hand, public debt will increase, which the Government defines as “relevant but inevitable”: blame “for the combined effect of the fall in GDP and the expenses incurred to face the crisis linked to the pandemic.” The first estimate of the debt / GDP ratio in the April Def was adjusted from 155.7 to 158 percent, “mainly due to the higher expenses contemplated in the so-called August decree”. In 2021 the government predicts a downward adjustment linked to the rebound in growth that will bring the debt / GDP ratio to 155.6%. Subsequently, the ratio should fall to 153.4% in 2022 and 151.5 in 2023. «In summary, the evolution of the debt is strongly conditioned by the serious economic crisis that triggered the health emergency. Therefore, Italy will not be able to comply with the numerical rule of debt reduction even in 2020 and 2021.
For the rest, the government assures that it will support the workers and productive sectors most affected by the pandemic and that it will exploit the resources made available by the Next Generation EU to carry out a broad program of investments and reforms that could lead, not before 2022, to growth. Nadef also announces a broad tax reform that improves the equity, efficiency and transparency of the tax system by reducing the tax burden on low and middle income, coordinating it with the introduction of a universal allowance for children.
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