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The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), which is responsible for policies to combat climate change, today published a new report on the emissions of polluting gases produced by human activities, one of the main causes of warming global. According to the report, despite a brief reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2, a major greenhouse gas) this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, the global mean temperature follows a trajectory that will lead to an increase of 3 ° C by the end of the century. Such an outcome would have catastrophic consequences for many ecosystems and for the quality of life of billions of people.
The 3 ° C increase would be significantly higher than the targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement, with which most of the world’s states have committed to adopting policies aimed at keeping the increase in global average temperature between 1.5 and 2 ° C. A result of this type would in any case imply several changes in the ecosystems, but it would allow limiting the damage and making possible subsequent improvements (although unlikely in the current state of things).
However, according to UNEP, the pandemic could be a good opportunity to review some environmental policies, especially by strengthening investments to reduce emissions. In recent months, the largest CO-producing countries2 They have launched very ambitious investment programs not only to try to reduce the spread of the coronavirus, but also to reactivate the economy, in which restrictions and blockades have had a strong impact. The planned investments could be directed towards more environmentally sustainable production systems, reducing the risk of reaching a 3 ° C increase in global average temperature by the end of the century.
The models developed in the UNEP report estimate that with the appropriate interventions for a “green pandemic recovery plan”, governments can respect the commitments made in Paris in 2015, keeping the increase in global average temperature between 1.5 and 2 ° C.
However, reversing the trend will not be easy. Global greenhouse gas emissions have increased by an average of 1.4 percent annually since 2010, with a very marked increase in 2019 of 2.6 percent. The increased number of large-scale fires, affecting large forests, contributed to last year’s increase.
UNEP has estimated that this year, after less travel and lower industrial and electrical production due to the coronavirus pandemic, carbon dioxide emissions are expected to drop 7 percent compared to recent years. However, such a reduction will have a marginal impact on the decrease in the global average temperature by 2050: only 0.01 ° C.
Estimated emission reduction in 2020 compared to 2019 after closures to combat the pandemic (UNEP)
Even with the pandemic, the indications to governments on the policies to adopt remain those recommended for some time: massive use of zero-emission technologies, reduction of subsidies for those who consume fossil fuels, no construction of new coal-fired power plants, recovery of natural environments and reforestation.
The report notes that in the last period an increasing number of governments have committed to zero net emissions by mid-century. Approximately 126 countries, which alone produce 51 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, have adopted or announced their intention to adopt new policies for zero carbon dioxide emissions in the coming decades. The problem, denounced for years by researchers, experts and associations, is that these announcements are not usually followed by concrete actions. UNEP estimates that current efforts, whether ongoing or announced, should be at least tripled to reduce the risk of a 2 ° C rise in global mean temperature.
As every year, the UNEP report dedicates part of its analysis to one or more sectors with room for improvement in reducing emissions. This year, the research focused on maritime and air transport, which alone contribute 5 percent of greenhouse gas emissions. New technologies to reduce consumption and improve performance, for example aircraft engines, can only partially contribute to reducing the environmental footprint of these sectors, whose growth is still very high, although temporarily slowed by the ongoing pandemic. Efforts to find alternative solutions to the use of fossil fuels have not yet been sufficient, although for some time the sector has been trying to rethink part of its operation, based on the technologies it uses and the optimization of transport, both for passengers and for passengers the goods.
To reduce carbon dioxide emissions, UNEP points to the possibility of using less polluting means of public transport than airplanes, such as trains, especially to travel short distances. Governments should also provide sustainable mobility systems, encouraging the spread of shared bikes and cars, and incentives to make households more energy efficient.
(Copernicus)
Earlier this week, the European Copernicus consortium for satellite studies released the results of its most recent studies, reporting that the recently completed November was the hottest November on a global scale, and by a wide margin. The previous record was taken in 2019, when another record was broken in November 2016.
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