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There was a lot of waiting the Regionals and the referendum institutional due to the consequences it may have had on the government and the general political balance. In reality, the results of the polls do not appear to have had a very significant impact on public opinion: administrative offices did indeed have a strong local connotation and in four out of six regions voters rewarded outgoing presidents who distinguished themselves in the phase more difficult. lived by the country from the postwar period onwards. National politics seems to have taken a back seat. The net result of the referendum, then, does not seem to have particularly rewarded the M5SThat is the political force that fights more than others for the reduction of parliamentarians.
The estate of the executive
Today’s poll shows, two months after the previous one, few major changes unlike what is generally recorded after important electoral appointments, when the traditional jump on the winner’s bandwagon occurs. In detail: the government and Prime Minister Conte they remained stable at high levels of appreciation, reaching a satisfaction index of 62 and 65 respectively. Opinions on party leaders and heads of delegation registered a slight increase in some of the majority exponents, in particular Zingaretti and Di Maio, and a small decrease for those of the opposition, with the exception of Berlusconi who increased by two points, presumably as proof of proximity to the disease and his hospitalization. And also the voting intentions do not seem to be too influenced by the recent vote: the League, almost one point more, remains in first place with 24%. It is followed by Pd (19.3%) and M5S (18.6%), both with a fall of 0.3% Brothers from Italy (16.7%), 1.5% less, which returns to the values of the previous months of May and June. Thus Go Italy (6.8%), Alive italy (3.1%) e Action (3%).
Balance in the classroom
But which Parliament could be delimited on the basis of the reduction of elected representatives and the current voting guidelines? The analysis takes into account the polls conducted by Ipsos from the end of May to the end of September for a total of 29,000 weighted interviews, aligning the data with current voting trends. The simulation carried out based on the current electoral law (Rosatellum) raised the problem of defining the majority constituencies, the number of which is known (three-eighths of the current constituencies) but not the conformation; therefore, the neighboring schools were merged to rebuild in each district the number of schools planned with the approval of the reform to reduce the number of parliamentarians. Furthermore, we simulate two hypotheses of political offer, the first based on the tripartition between the center right, the center left and M5S, the second on only two coalitions, the center right and an alliance between the current forces of the majority. The breakdown of the constituencies won by each coalition among the different parties of the coalition was carried out assuming a subdivision of the candidates that takes into account both the national electoral weight of each coalition and the electoral weight relative to each geographic area to which the party belongs. district. Finally, the simulation of the seats obtainable in the proportional part was carried out based on the rules established by the current law and the voting intentions registered today, while the allocation of seats abroad reflects what happened in the previous elections, having also take into account registered voting trends in Italy
The scenarios and the result
Even with the approximations of the case, the first scenario attributes the majority of the Chamber to the center-right with 227 seats (more than half of which would go to the League), compared to the 114 estimated for the center-left and 55 for the M5S. In the Senate, the center-right would get 112 elected against the 57 of the center-left and 27 of the M5. In the hypothesis of a Giallorossi coalition, the advantage of the center-right is confirmed: 218 to 161 in the House and 112 to 80 in the Senate. If the electoral law were changed by adopting the so-called Germanicum, the majority would be lost and seats would be allocated with a proportional method and a threshold of 3% or, alternatively, 5% at the national level (or 15% in a region), recognizing the so-called right of the rostrum to those who do not exceed the threshold, but obtain the complete quotient in at least three districts of two different regions.
The barriers
In the case of a 5% barrier, seven political forces could enter the Chamber (the main five plus Italy alive and SVP) and six in the Senate (Italy alive in fact would not win the right to the rostrum), while if The threshold will be set at 3%. On the basis of the current voting intentions, the participation of Carlo Calenda would be added, who could enter the Chamber but not the Senate. Regardless of the threshold, the Germanicum, as well as the Rosatellum, would assign the majority to the center-right: in fact, with the 5% threshold of Lega, FdI and FI would obtain 219 seats in the Chamber and 112 in the Senate where a possible Giallorossi Alliance (Pd, M5S and Iv) would amount to 179 and 86 seats. Tighter majority for the center-right with the 3% threshold: 206 seats in the House and 108 in the Senate. In this case, a hypothetical Giallorossi coalition would obtain 179 and 90 deputies.
The role of moderates
Faced with these scenarios, two questions seem decisive: the first refers to the cohesion of the center-right coalition in which Forza Italia, as already observed in the previous simulation at the end of July, could really represent the tip of the game. balance. The second refers to a very frequent attitude in the Italian parliament represented by the change of jacket (116 only in the current legislature). In fact, in a parliament with few seats, the transhumance of elected representatives from one parliamentary group to another has even more important consequences for the maintenance of the structures determined by the vote of the electors. In short, weeks await us in which we will talk about electoral law. It is easy to foresee that the proposals will be guided by the convenience of the political party itself, of course, wrapped up in solemn and hypocritical declarations about the interest in the country, governance and representation. In this sense, it would be worth describing in civic education manuals the genesis of the term Porcellum with which the 2005 electoral law was defined a posteriori by its promoter.
September 26, 2020 (change September 26, 2020 | 07:54 am)
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