something strange is happening in Lombardy

The contagion curve drops almost everywhere, in all regions. But in Lombardy there are signs that are difficult to understand. You need to know how to analyze numbers. Arturo Artom, engineer and founder of Confapri and Roberto Battiston, physicist and president of the Italian Space Agency (ASI), do so today.

Coronavirus: why does Rt no longer fall in Lombardy?

Something strange is happening in Lombardy: As Battiston points out on his website, the Rt index in the region has stopped falling for ten days. He tells it today in Corriere della Sera, which welcomes the intervention of the two experts. The numbers: After hitting the lowest value since early fall around November 25, below 0.7, the Rt index continues to fluctuate around 0.8 while in many other regions it continues to fall towards lower values.

Image by Corriere della Sera

Lombardy was the region most affected by the virus also in this second wave. According to Artom and Battiston, the resumption of contagion in October is not related to summer behaviors, but must be linked to the reopening of offices and the resumption of school activity, with the consequent overcrowding in public transport.

Around October 23, the curve changes dramatically and the Rt index in all Italian regions, with few differences, falls again.

As of November 27, however, the arrest of the descent of the Rt. Why? What happened? We can only make assumptions, with the data available. But Artom and Battiston wonder if the new measures in November may have had counterproductive effects. What do you mean?

Forcing the inhabitants of medium-large cities within the limits of their municipalities may have favored in some way new contacts or meetings to determine the resumption of contagion.

Covid: contagion in Lombardy, 1,233 cases in 24 hours

There are 1,233 new coronavirus positives (8.6%) registered in Lombardy in the last 24 hours (of which 86 ‘weakly positive’) based on 14,175 swabs and 69 deaths. The Region reported this in its daily bulletin. Those healed / discharged reached the global total of 320,380, with an increase of 23,090, of which 5,127 were discharged and 315,253 recovered. There are currently 766 people in intensive care (-1), while non-intensive care patients are 5,727 (-460). The overall death toll reached 23,277. The new cases by province see Milan in 336, of which 108 in the city of Milan; Bergamo 103; Brescia 265; Like 22; Cremona 48; Lecco 44; Lauds 12; Mantua 29; Monza and Brianza 106; Pavia 76; Sondrio 2; Varese 150.

Source: Corriere della Sera →