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Estimates for the next global for the next months of the pandemic do not bode well. According to experts froml’Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (Ihme) at the University of Washington School of Medicine, in fact, in 2020 we will have “a deadly December “, with spikes of deaths that may come 30 thousand a day in the world.
However, the report also highlights the advances in medicine in the knowledge of the Covid 19 virus and the data is reassuring as it is expected that almost 770 thousand lives around the world could be saved between now and january 1, through the use of masks and respect for social distancing. Cumulative deaths expected on January 1 amount to 2.8 million, about 1.9 million more between now and the end of the year.
Italy is not in the top ten of the nations with the highest number of total victims by population, the first place is from India. Current projections estimate that total deaths will reach 56,071 by January 1, with just under 500 deaths a day in December, in stark contrast to the universal use of masks and respect for distancing. The director of the Ihme, Christopher murray He said: “We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia and the United States. But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: wear the mask, respecting distancing and limiting social gatherings are essential to help prevent the transmission of the virus ”.
Three the stages possible: a “worse” one in which the use of masks remains at the current rate and governments continue to relax the distancing requirements, leading to a total of 4 million deaths by the end of the year; a “better” one, with 2 million total deaths if mask use is near universal and governments will impose spacing requirements when the daily death rate exceeds 8 cases per million; and a “very likely” scenario that assumes unaltered measures, with a total therefore of around 2.8 million deaths. The references to the 750,000 lives saved and the 30,000 deaths a day in December represent the differences between the “best” and “most likely” scenarios.
L ‘increased number of deaths is due in part to “a likely seasonal increase in Covid-19 casesthe northern hemisphere “, the researchers explain. To date, in fact, the disease has continued seasonal patterns similar to pneumonia And, if this correlation holds, northern countries can predict more cases in late fall and winter, experts reason. “People in the Northern Hemisphere need to be especially vigilant as winter approaches, as coronavirus, such as pneumonia, will be more common in cold climates “Murray said. “Looking at the staggering estimates on Covid-19, it is easy to get lost in the enormity of the numbers,” admitted the expert: “The death toll exceeds the capacity of the 50 largest stadiums in the world, a sobering picture.”
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