signs of slowdown, but saturated hospitals – Corriere.it

Infections appear to be stabilizing, but hospitalizations and Covid victims are on the rise. The independent follow-up carried out in the week 11-17 of November by the Gimbe Foundation seems to confirm a slowdown in the rise of the epidemic curve: the new cases diagnosed are 242,609 (compared to 235,634 the previous week), compared to a small reduction in tampons (854,626 versus 872,026) and a slight increase in the positivity rate (28.4% versus 27%). The current positives grew by 24.4% (733,810 against 590,110 in the previous week) and deaths increased by 41.7% (4,134 against 2,918) Contagion like a car that after accelerating the race for weeks cases), now travels at a very high but constant speed (number of cases per week) despite having a reduced acceleration, explains Nino Cartabellotta, president of Gimbe.

Limitations remain at Christmas

Looking at the absolute numbers, we cannot speak of a slowdown because we run the risk of emphasizing timid improvements to limit restrictions and legitimize the reopening. In fact, in the last week there was a further reduction in the percentage increase (from 31% to 24.4%) but new cases still increased by 242,609 compared to the previous week. Furthermore, in all Regions except Puglia, the percentage increase in cases has decreased, but positives are currently increasing everywhere except Valle D’Aosta. While the slowdowns of the last week represent a positive sign – explains Cartabellotta – it must be said that the containment measures introduced have not been “flattened”the contagion curve that keeps rising albeit at reduced speed. Currently positive, hospitalizations, intensive care and, above all, deaths are also on the rise. In this scenario, assume a flexibility of measures with the aim of saving the Christmas, you probably have very serious consequences.

Hospital beds

The reduction in the percentage increase is also seen in the number of hospitalized patients with symptoms (+ 15.5%) and, to a lesser extent, in intensive care (+ 21.6%). Also in this case, however, there is an increase in absolute terms: both patients in ordinary wards are growing (33,074 compared to 28,633 in the previous week) and the most serious patients in resuscitation (3,612 compared to 2,971). In any case, in 15 Regions the employment threshold of 40% defined by the Ministry of Health for patients with Covid in medical departments and in 17 of 30% in ICUs was exceeded. If the respective national averages reached 51% and 42%, in several Regions the values ​​are much higher and some hospitals are also at the bottom because, adds Cartabellotta Covid patients are progressively “cannibalizing” beds other departments by limiting the ability to help patients with other pathologies.

Deaths will increase

Separate chapter, unfortunately for him Covid victims. The increase in deaths, explains Renata Gili of the Gimbe Foundation, instead maintains a exponential trend, registering a + 41.7% compared to the previous week. This increase destined to increase in the coming weeks, because the effect of restrictive measures first reduces contagion rates (Rt, percentage increase in cases), then hospitalizations and intensive care, and only finally deaths.