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Signs of resumption of the epidemic. COVID-19 in Italy, but also some signs of optimism: on the eve of the passage of many regions in the yellow zone, we advance on a thin thread, as the physicist observes Roberto battiston, from the University of Trento. The first signs of recovery are indicated by the data on the percentage of positive cases in molecular swabs, the result of the analysis carried out by the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, from the Institute of Calculus Applications “Mauro Picone” of the National Research Council (Cnr -Iac ). “The effect of the liberation of the measures taken during the Christmas period has already begun, and the values now show signs of a resumption of the epidemic, just as most regions are about to enter the yellow zone.” According to Sebastiani’s calculations “the time sequence of the weekly percentage change of the positive curve in the molecular swabs shows negative values: a good thing, but unfortunately it increases from about 14 days after the publication of the measurements, which took place on January 7th. “. In fact, since January 25 “these values have turned positive. This suggests a significant increase in infections in the coming weeks.
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«A similar analysis on the intensive care curve “shows values that oscillate around a negative value in the last ten days. This corresponds to a linear decrease in intensive care: a good thing, but we know that changes in this curve occur with a delay compared to the percentage of positives. As for the death curve, although it is showing “a slight decrease” with respect to the peak value around January 12, it has an average value in the last thirty days that remains “unfortunately high”, equivalent to about 475 daily deaths . For Battston “we are on the tightrope, a narrow line of balance, but one that seems to hold.” However, it will be necessary to follow daily what will happen in the regions that will turn yellow from February 1, in order to “be able to intervene quickly. It becomes important to have a daily follow-up ».
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There are encouraging signs, but they could easily be compromised by the resumption of infections. For example, continues the physicist, the general value of the contagion index Rt is below 1, but the epidemic is fading very slowly. Currently, the national Rt index is just below 0.9: “we are just below the immediate danger threshold.” Furthermore, in Italy there are still some 463,000 actively infected, a very high number, which is decreasing a little every day. Also in most regions the Rt index is lower than 1: “The situation is on the edge, but it remains.” To be sure, Battiston continues, the transition to yellow in many regions “puts considerable strain on the system; Only the data will be able to tell us in the coming days if this step will lead to Rt values higher than 1 or not: in this case, however, it will be necessary to intervene promptly on the colors.
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A positive element is that “at least five or six million Italians have been infected and recovered, more than 1.7 million have received at least the first dose of the vaccine: we also know that after the first injection of the vaccine there is already protection . As a result, we have more than 10% of the population enjoying a more or less high degree of protection. It is an important piece of information, because, if it is true that group immunity shoots up above 70% of the vaccinated population, it is also true that for each percentage point more vaccinated it is as if we reduced the Rt index by the same amount ”. .
However, the question of the variants to be treated remains, considering that “if more contagious variants than the current virus arrived, even herd immunity would require a higher percentage of protected people. The game, he concluded, is “to vaccinate at the maximum possible speed: this certainly helps us to support the transition to the yellow regions, without restarting a new phase of the epidemic.”
Last updated: 22:11
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