“Sicily worse than Campania and Rt among the highest in Italy”

It’s an incontrovertible fact: there are far more tampons today than there were during the first terrible phase of the health emergency. Therefore, for many, the axiom becomes that the growth of Covid cases that we have witnessed for a few weeks is actually determined only by the greater number of controls and not by a more intense spread of the disease. In some regions this is true, but in others, such as Sicily, it is not. Indeed, precisely on the island, not only the growth of the epidemic is greater than the national one, but also -even- compared to Campania, which is one of the areas where Governor Vincenzo De Luca has come to close schools and threaten blocks. rigorous. In Sicily, in addition, the Rt index is also higher, among the highest in the country: each positive infects almost one and a half people on average. The data arise from a statistical model developed by a team of researchers from the Department of Economics, Business and Statistics of the University of Palermo, which aims to analyze the trend of the disease and also uses a new and more precise number than the simple number positive cases, or the actual percentage infected compared to swabs performed every day.

The statistical model

The group of academics – made up of Vito Muggeo, Andrea Consiglio, Mariano Porcu (from the University of Cagliari), Gianluca Sottile, Vincenzo Giuseppe Genova and Giorgio Bertolazzi – decided to disclose the data daily, based on those provided by Civil Protection, and to make them accessible to all in this link. According to the researchers, “the number of new positive cases”, which is the one that ends up in the headlines every day, “is the least adequate amount to make a comparison with previous months”, those of the first wave. Precisely because so many more people are being swabbed today than in March and April. With this in mind, a “good” or “tight” Rt has been included in the data, which takes into account the largest number of buffers. The situation of admissions is also analyzed and the date of the reopening of the schools is reported, at which time -in all the graphs- the situation worsens and the curves mark a new upward growth.

Comparison between regions

In the place, there is a graph in which all the regions of Italy are compared, considering however the “proven cases”, which is the actual infected, that is, eliminating the swabs that are made at the same positive. Sicily is at the moment exactly in the middle of the graph and almost perfectly aligned with the national data: the positive cases on the number of swabs performed is 11.7%, while in Italy it is 11.8. The most critical situation is that of Valle d’Aosta (36.2%) and Calabria (4%). However, it must be said that the number of swabs performed on the island is significantly less than in other regions: if the number of tests increased, what would the percentage of actual positives be?

The knot of the reopening of schools

In all the graphs the reopening of schools was introduced as a temporary data: a few days later – the time necessary for the virus to incubate – and here the different curves mark a new trend and turn upwards. The researchers point out that it is not necessarily the school itself that determines the growth of the epidemic, but all the movements that are generated around it, such as the use of public transport.

Record growth of the disease in Sicily

According to the university model, the growth rate of positive cases on the island – if we exclude the period between February and March – has never been higher: 9.24% (between the end of March and the end of April, in total block, it was – 3.68) and the same happens with the Rt index: today each positive infects on average almost one and a half people (1.46). Between March and April, the RT was 0.83. Just look the curve on the graph: never been so high. If we look at the number of positives in relation to the number of swabs, the situation is reduced, but very little: the growth rate becomes 8.01 and the Rt “adjusted” to 1.40. Between February 25 and March 21, the peak of the emergency, the growth estimate was 6.09 with an “adjusted” Rt of 1.30. And it is no better – and it is perhaps the most alarming figure – if you look at the admissions data: apparently the growth rate is very low, 2.84% (between February and March it was 25.49), but when you look at the graph reveals, however, that the seats occupied today are almost the same as in the most acute phase of the emergency. In other words, incomes are currently increasing more slowly than during the first wave, but the number of places occupied, even in intensive care units, is already very high.

On the island, data worse than the national average

In addition to the data for Sicily, it can be found on the site. national and seven other regions (Campania, Veneto, Lombardy, Sardinia, Lazio, Piedmont, Puglia). Regarding the general situation of the country, the positive growth rate is 10.33% and 1.52 rupees. It is when we consider the “clean” data, that is, those relative to the positive ones with respect to the number of buffers, that the situation is reduced (and the case of Sicily worsens): the growth rate becomes 7.52% and the Rt “adjusted” 1.37. Worrying at the national level are the data on the trend of hospitalizations: 12.33% (in March it was 6.73).

… and also with regard to Campania

Then, comparing the data of the island with those of Campania, it turns out that in Sicily the epidemic advances faster: the growth rate of positives, which in Campania has never been so high, is in fact 8.04%, with an Rt of 1.40. However, the photograph changes a lot if you evaluate the number of positives compared to the swabs: the growth rate drops to 3.95% and the Rt (“adjusted”) becomes 1.19. Campania is worse than the island only when it comes to hospitalizations, whose growth rate is almost double (4.62%), while in March it was 15.49.

The Sicilian curve similar to the Venetian

According to the statistical model of the research team, the trend of the epidemic in Sicily seems to be similar to that of one of the regions most tormented by Covid during the first wave, namely Veneto: here the growth rate of positives is 6 ., 61% and the Rt of 1.32. Once again, if we take into account the number of infected people with respect to the swabs made, the picture changes and even worse for Veneto: the growth rate actually increases to 9.47% with an “adjusted” Rt of 1 , 47. The same as the Sicilian.

The first of Lombardy

The situation in Lombardy continues to be worrying, which is more serious than that of Sicily: the growth rate of the disease is 14.90%, that is, similar to that registered at the peak of the pandemic, between February and March, or 14.95, while the ‘Rt is 1.76. If we look at the figure related to the number of buffers, the growth rate becomes 11.37% (between February and March it was 19.71) and the “adjusted” TR of 1.57 (it was 2.03 between February and March). March). In Lombardy, hospitalizations, except in the first phase of the emergency, have never grown as much as today: the rate is in fact 12.33%, while in March it was 6.73.

Sardinia, an almost happy island

A quintessential “covid-free” region, Sardinia has had to deal with the virus since late summer. Today the growth rate is 4.11% (but between March and July it was -5.31), almost half that of Sicilian, with a Rt of 1.20 (between March and July, however, it was 0.75). If you scale the figure in proportion to the reserves, the growth rate becomes 3.13% and the “adjusted” Rt 1.15. Statistics clearly better than those of Sicily, with the exception of hospitalizations, which in Sardinia are currently growing by 4.36%.