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The index keeps rising Rt in Italy, which rises from 0.90 to 0.93– It is the third consecutive week of increase and this already provides a first indication of the colors that will be assigned to the regions of Italy from January 7, when the red / orange phase of the holidays will end.
In the draft of the monitoring report of the Ministry of Health and ISS, referring to the period 21-27 December, it is clear that in 4 regions (Basilicata, Calabria, Liguria and Veneto) the RT is above 1, in Puglia and Lombardy is at 1. Sicily is very close with 0.93.
These data, except for miracles, certainly will not improve and next week we will face a reality already known to Italians, which is to wait for the color assignment and consequently the restrictions.
That is why a return to normality for bars and restaurants seems unlikely on the horizon, since it would seem to exclude the opening of gyms and swimming pools, although with limitations, although the Minister of Sport two days ago raised the hypothesis of a reopening in January .
Precisely in the second part of the first month of the year, the data will acquire an even more important meaning because it will remain in the face of Christmas restrictions that, if on the one hand they avoided the gatherings, on the other hand they also allowed, although in a lower percentage, the spread of the virus, through the movements allowed to visit friends and family. If the government, with the measures applied, will be right or not, it will only be seen in the second part of January. Meanwhile, there is the latest data to evaluate, which is certainly not positive.
A growing RT means, as the ISS repeats, “maintaining the drastic reduction in physical interactions between people, avoiding all occasions of contact with people outside the home that are not strictly necessary, and staying home.” more like “. In the preliminary draft of the weekly monitoring of the Ministry of Health-Iss it is recommended, a few hours from possible meetings allowed although in the red zone with friends and family to celebrate the new year, to comply with all security measures included quarantines of close contacts of cases, verified and isolation of the cases themselves.
“The Veneto Region, in addition to a punctual Rt greater than one, is accompanied by a particularly high incidence – it is written in the draft -. During the follow-up week a general decrease in risk is observed, mainly due to a slight reduction in occupancy rates for bed places in intensive care and medical areas “. In particular, nine Regions are classified as low risk.
Eleven Regions / HAPPs are classified as moderate risk, of which three (Emilia-Romagna, Valle d’Aosta and Veneto) have a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next month if the current transmissibility remains unchanged. Among these 11 is Sicily with a Rt of 0.93. Our region passed 1,000 coronavirus cases yesterday after weeks: 1,084 to be precise, 9% more than yesterday and a positivity rate of 12.8%, clearly above the national average, by virtue of the 8,497 swabs made in the last 24 hours. The current RT ei growing numbers currently put us at moderate risk and in a week the color with which we will face January will be decided. Most likely, based on old assessment methods and current epidemiological trends, would appear to be orange.
One region (Sardinia) has a non-assessable risk rating, equivalent to high risk, given the low percentage of data integrity.
Here is the table showing the timely RT indicators for December 21-27 updated to December 29: Abruzzo: 0.65, Basilicata: 1.09, Calabria: 1.09, Campania: 0.78, ER: 0.98, Fvg: 0.96, Lazio: 0.84, Liguria : 1.07, Lombardy: 1, Brands: 0.99, Molise: 0.89, Piedmont: 0.71, PA Bolzano: 0.76, PA Trento: 0.71, Puglia: 1, Sardinia: 0.78, Sicily: 0.93, Tuscany: 0.79, Umbria 0.8, Vda: 0.83, Veneto: 1.07.
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