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In the first newsletter of 2021, In the eyes of Italy, Veneto is confirmed as the black jersey with the highest increase in infections: 4,805 new positives, compared to 21,595 molecular swabs. Read in this way, the absolute numbers would seem to determine a relative incidence of 22.25%, which, however, once again does not take into account the antigenic test, which on certain days even doubles the diagnostic basis on which the infection rate must be calculated.
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The statistical distortion has been known for some time and yesterday the Regions quoted it again, in a document with which they asked the Higher Institute of Health to take this into account, among other changes that will be made to the mechanism of 21 indicators that assess color (yellow, orange and red) in the restriction band assignment. Minister Roberto Speranza’s staff has made it known that a circular will be issued on the subject of rapid examinations. Meanwhile, we compare regional data from across the country to see how the landscape of the situation changes relative to the observation point.
Covid in Veneto
In fact, it is quite evident that the proportion of positives in the total of controls is more or less important, depending on the counting group. For example, 10 out of 50 infected molecular swabs represent 20%. But those same 10 infected, when compared with 50 molecular swabs and 50 other antigenic tests (thus 100 diagnoses in total), represent 10%. Despite the indication to the Regions to communicate the number of rapid daily controls, the national bulletin published every day at 5:00 p.m. by the Ministry of Health indicates only molecular products, which obviously penalizes the areas in which a test is carried out. wide screening activity. in addition to laboratory analysis. To understand it, just read the table published above, where we have listed the 19 Regions and the 2 Autonomous Provinces. For each one, the institutional website was consulted, recovering the number of swabs performed (of a single type or both) and of the infections identified, in order to calculate the incidence based on the molecular alone or the sum with the antigens. To be reasonably sure of making a reliable comparison, based on reliable data, we take into consideration the last day of 2020 before the inevitable slowdown of the New Year, that is, Wednesday, December 30.
Antigenic test
As you can see, not all regions use (or claim to use) antigen testing. On the other hand, those who use them, perhaps even in large quantities, find that their rate changes even considerably. This is precisely the case for Veneto, which at first glance would appear to have 16.72%, while in reality it has 5.70%. But it also happens to Trentino (11.40% instead of 20.64%), Alto Adige (4.05% instead of 9.32%), Piedmont (5.82% and not 12.08%), Liguria (3.93% instead of 7.09%) and so on. Clearly, to remain in the case of Veneto, a total of 5.70% is lower than only the molecular incidences such as Lazio (9.74%), Calabria (13.95%), Puglia (13.21%)), Sicily (12.75% %) and so on. As they say, the more you search, the more you find, so an increasing number of controls allows you to identify a considerably greater number of positives, with all their contact tracking and therefore more buffers. But this is one front of the Veneto problem. Then there is the second, that of the visible clinical impact on hospitalizations and deaths.
Last updated: 09:11
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