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Rome, December 18, 2020 – Back to top l ‘Rt index in Italy. The last report Iss relative to period From December 7 to 13 it sets it at 0.86, compared to 0.82 per A week ago. Therefore, the incidence of Covid-19 in Italy is still too high, so much so that it does not allow a relaxation of the measures, but rather requires a strengthening of them in some areas of the country.
RT index increase
The draft on the weekly monitoring of the National Institute of Health and the Ministry of Health on the Coronavirus epidemic in the country shows an average Rt transmissibility index increasing: in the period November 25-December 8, 2020, the calculated index on cases the symptoms were 0.86, compared with 0.82 for last week’s follow-up. “We found punctual Rt values less than 1 in 16 autonomous regions and provinces: 15 have a punctual Rt of less than one, even in their most credible interval, which indicates a significant decrease in transmissibility.”
First sign of a countertrend
From the monitoring project for week 7 to December 13, 2020 (data updated to December 16, 2020), it also appears that in three regions, Lazio, Lombardy and Veneto, the Rt index has grown: “it is observed for the first time a countertrend sign in the transmissibility “of Covid-19” compared to the previous week in the whole country. “In these three regions, a transmissibility compatible with a type 2 scenario was registered (that is, the one with rt greater than 1, ed) The report emphasizes that this is achieved in a European context characterized by a new increase in the number of cases in some countries such as the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Germany and a non-decrease in cases with stabilization of the epidemic curve in others, for example in France and Spain “.
Lazio, Liguria and Veneto High risk
“In most Regions / ASF, a moderate or high risk with five Regions / PAs with a low risk of an uncontrolled and unmanageable epidemic. In particular, 3 Regions (Lazio, Liguria and Veneto) are classified as High risk. These have been classified as high risk for 3 or more consecutive weeks Thirteen regions / PA are classified as moderate risk, of which 2 (Marche and PA Trento) have a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next month if the current transmissibility. Regions are classified as Low Risk. All Regions / HAPPs, except 3, have a point RT compatible with a type 1 scenario. The remaining Regions have a point RT compatible with a type 2 scenario (Lazio, Lombardy and Veneto). observed a high impact of the epidemic in most of the Regions / HAPPs. As of December 15, 16 Regions / HAPPs had exceeded at least a critical threshold in the medical or IT area (vs 18 Regio / HAPP the previous week) ” .
In two regions Rt greater than 1
In three regions the contagion index Rt is equal to 1 or greater than 1. These are Molise (1.18), Veneto (1.07) and Lombardy (1). The lowest value refers to Valle d’Aosta and Campania, which register 0.63.
Holidays, possible increased infections
Therefore, the ISS report recommends keeping the alert level high: “During the follow-up week, moderate or high risk is still observed in most regions / APPs with only five regions / protected areas with low risk of an uncontrolled and unmanageable epidemic. This trend requires rigor in the adoption and respect of the measures, avoiding a relaxation in the behavior “.
Worries increase over the holidays. “Overall, it predicts the impact the Christmas season could have, however the increased mobility and interpersonal interaction typical of sociability this season could result in a significant increase in SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In the situation described, this would imply a consequent rapid increase in cases to levels potentially higher than that observed in November in a context in which the impact of the epidemic on health workers, services and the population is still very high ”.
Values far from restoring plots
Although the follow-up has registered a decrease in the incidence at the national level in the last 14 days, but the value is “still far from the levels that would allow the complete restoration throughout the national territory of identification of cases and follow up on your contacts. This approach showed the first signs of criticality when the nationwide value exceeded 50 cases per 100,000 in seven days, ”highlights the weekly Issue draft.
Middle age
“The average age is constant just under 50 years,” underlines Silvio Brusaferro, president of the Higher Institute of Health (Iss). The sectors of the population most affected are between 15 and 70 years old. And “more than 50% of the people diagnosed are asymptomatic.”
Decrease in intensive therapies
The positive data comes from intensive care: the number of people hospitalized is decreasing from 3,345 (08/12/2020) to 3,003 (12/15/2020). The number of people admitted to medical areas also decreased from 30,081 (12/08/2020) to 27,342 (12/15/2020). “There is a slow decrease in the occupation of hospital beds, both in the medical area and in the field of intensive care,” says Brusaferro. For the intensive there are 4 regions that exceed the probability of exceeding the critical threshold of 30% occupancy in 30 days ”.
Here is the data region by region
The first is the 14-day value, while the second is the point RT.
Abruzzo 0.80; 0.82
Basilicata 0.67; 0.61
Calabria 0.74; 0.74
Campania 0.63; 0.59
Emilia Romagna 0.84; 0.84
Friuli Venezia Giulia 0.78; 0.7
Lazio 0.95; 1.04
Liguria 0.74; 0.73
Lombardy 1.00; 1.02
Walk 0.88; 0.97
Molise 1.18; 1.16
Piedmont 0.68; 0.81
Autonomous Province of Bolzano 0.75; 1.05
Autonomous Province of Trento 0.97; 0.68
Puglia 0.89; 0.9
Sardinia 0.80; 0.83
Sicily 0.73; 0.72
Tuscany 0.70; 0.68
Umbria 0.75; 0.75
Aosta Valley 0.63; 0.57
Veneto 1.07; 1.08.
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