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Currently, the Rt index, which indicates how many people can be infected by a person who has the infection, would be “equal to 0.99 in Italy. The calculations reported by theAnsa of the physicist Roberto Battiston, from the University of Trento, a result similar to that provided by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (Iss).
Roberto Battiston: “Rt index of 0.99 in Italy”
“The identification of the red, yellow and orange zones starts from the value of the Rt index, but does not consider the degree of development of the epidemic in the area”, Battiston observes. “Instead, the number of positive cases in the region should be included in the evaluation because they are the two values that together determine the speed with which the epidemic can spread with the risk of saturating the local health system.” The higher the Rt value, the greater the risk of the epidemic spreading. If, on the contrary, the Rt value is less than 1, this means that the epidemic can be contained more easily. The RT indicates how many people can be infected by a single person on average and in a given period of time in relation to the effectiveness of restrictive measures – such as the red, orange and yellow zones – sought by the government to stop the spread of the virus … It is nothing more than one contagion rate that explains how contagious the virus is after the application of the restrictions.
The 5 regions still in the middle of the second wave
There are five regions still in the middle of the second wave, ten are those that have an epidemic in descending phase although with different speeds, while six have substantially surpassed the second wave: the calculations of the physicist Roberto Battiston, of the University of Trento always do indicate. . The analysis published by Ansa compares the number of infected in progress both with respect to the peak of November 27 and with respect to September 29. In the first case, at the national level, there is a decrease of 28%, from 805,000 to the current 577,000, while compared to the approximately 50,000 cases on September 29, the number of infected currently remains 11.5 times higher.
Veneto, Sardinia, Puglia, Marche and Trentino have not yet reached the maximum o they still do not decrease significantly while Basilicata registers a reduction of only 6%. In these regions, still in the middle of the second epidemic wave, the number of infected currently has increased, compared to the end of September, from 8.6 times in Sardinia to 25 times in Veneto.
On the other hand, the descending phase of the second wave has started a long time ago, although at different speeds, in ten regions, from Campania and Emilia Romagna to Calabria, which compared to November 27 registered a decrease that goes from November 9 % of the autonomous province. from Bolzano to 37% in Abruzzo, with an ongoing increase in the number of infected compared to September 29, from 10.5 times in Lazio to 19.4 times in the autonomous province of Bolzano. Finally, Liguria, Lombardy, Piedmont, Tuscany, Umbria and Valle d’Aosta have substantially overcome the second wave.
Covid: what will happen from January 7
The Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza, first Giuseppe Conte and the majority heads of delegation met on the first Sunday of the new year to take stock of the coronavirus emergency. New bans on the horizon? Several hypotheses on the table. On the weekends after January 7, the government is considering closing bars, restaurants, shops and shopping centers. And ban nonessential travel. We are moving towards a bridging measure following a reinforced yellow zone.
The latest data with the growing RT and the constantly increasing rate of positivity cast long shadows on the reopening of shops, bars and restaurants to the public, and the return to normal daily life of citizens. Veneto, Liguria and Calabria with the Rt above 1 run the risk of starting from the red zone, while Lombardy, Puglia and Basilicata could finish in the orange. The government’s decision must come by Epiphany, based on the new report that will be presented by the Higher Institute of Health. However, the number of infections in recent days has triggered a new alarm.
Orange Zone on January 4, 2021
Let’s get back to the certainties: tomorrow, January 4, Italy is in the orange zone. In summary in the orange zone:
- You can move freely within your municipality from 5 to 22 hours;
- You can travel outside your municipality to visit family and friends, but always within your own region.
- you cannot leave your region;
- It is possible to travel outside the municipalities with a population of no more than 5,000 inhabitants, traveling a distance of no more than 30 kilometers and without going to the provincial capital;
Then Italy again in the red on January 5 and 6, and from Thursday 7 we will return to the band system. It remains to be understood how the swirl of colors that has been plaguing Italy for several weeks will move, with the aim of limiting Covid 19 infections. The pre-Christmas forecast was that all regions would start from where they left off, so than in a simple yellow band, including Abruzzo which was in the orange band. It probably won’t. “Since December 20, all the most important parameters are increasing,” he says. Republic Enrico Bucci, a professor of biology at Temple University in Philadelphia. With more than half a million infected people active in the national territory, there is a risk of a new sharp increase in infections in January.
