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Rome, November 2, 2020 – They could be there Calabria, the Piedmont and the Lombardy the Regions that, based on the data from the latest monitoring by the Higher Institute of Health, could risk to be included in the first ordinances of the Ministry of Health with the provision of more restrictive measures, standing in one scenario 4 high-risk. Piedmont and Lombardy, in particular, have exceeded the threshold of the Rt transmissibility index equal to 2 (respectively they are at 2.16 and 2.09) and Calabria is at 1.66. THE new monitoring data, scheduled for tomorrow at 4 pm, could nevertheless signal a change in trend, since they could begin to report effects related to the measures of the last Dpcm. In the meantime, there should be no meeting between Prime Minister Giuseppe tonight. Conte and the heads of delegation of the majority forces: except for last minute surprises, in fact, the Prime Minister, before adopting the new Dpcm under study, would like to see the new data of tomorrow and the updating of the epidemiological curve by the Higher Institute of Health.
Awaiting, therefore, the follow-up data, Prime Minister Conte this morning to the camera has already announced that I am three risk scenarios in which the regions to modulate the more restrictions its local base as expected of new Dpcm. “The next Dpcm said Conte – will identify 3 areas corresponding to 3 risk scenarios, for each of which increasingly restrictive measures are envisaged. Insertion of a region in a specific band will happen with order of the Minister of Health. “It should be remembered that at the national level the last Rt index had risen to worrying figure of 1.7.
What would it be then Regions at risk? For now we can trustRt index (the contagion rate) of each Region (here all the data) calculated in the last weekly report of theHigher Institute of Health (Iss): the data that we now provide is therefore updated to the last document from last Friday, October 30, which analyzes the follow-up of the previous week, waiting for the next data to be provided tomorrow.
Mattarella calls Bonaccini and Toti
After the warning to roll up your sleeves and unite to defeat Covid and help the country recover, Sergio Mattarella pick up the phone directly to call the main institutional interlocutors of the government and invite everyone to collaborate. This morning the Head of State called the president of the Conference of Regions Stefano bonaccini and his vice president Giovanni toti to urge the maximum cooperation. Colle’s sources define the interview as “interesting and profitable.” The President of the Republic reiterated “the decisive role of the Regions in addressing the pandemic”, but also “trusted in the closest collaboration between all State institutions.” Obviously the Head of State did not take the merits of the concrete measures that are being decided to stop the epidemic. At precisely the same time, the Regions were immersed in another meeting-clash with the government on the options to take.
Covid, scenario 4
As confirmed by the prime minister in the Montecitorio courtroom, the epidemic in Italy runs towards the so-called scenario 4, the most serious, according to the ‘Prevention and response to COVID-19’ plan prepared by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità. Scenario 4 occurs in cases of uncontrolled transmissibility with criticalities in the health system in the short term. One of the parameters taken into account is the Rt contagion rate region by region. It goes into red alert when 1.5 is exceeded.
Scenario 4: the three areas
Scenario 4, again within the ISS document, is divided into three bands or risk areas: moderate; high / very high for less than three consecutive weeks; high / very high for more than three consecutive weeks and unmanageable situation.
And 21 parameters
But how will the regions be divided into the three areas? Conte talked about 21 parameters. “Risk scenarios take into account the assessments of the Higher Institute of Health and the Higher Health Council, based on 21 parameters (including the number of symptomatic cases, hospitalizations, RSA cases, the percentage of positive swabs, the average time between symptoms and diagnosis, the number of new outbreaks, the occupancy of beds according to actual availability). It is, therefore, a very complex system ”. And as mentioned, it will be an ordinance of the Ministry of Health that will establish inclusion in the different groups.
Regions and rt index
Another important piece of information is the Rt index. Currently (again according to the data updated to last Friday’s monitoring) they are 13 regions which in the latest ISS report are above the threshold: two of these even exceed 2, they are Piedmont (2.16) me Lombardy (2.09). The other attention regions are Calabria (1.66), Emilia Romagna (1.63), Friuli Venezia Giulia (1.5), Lazio (1.51), Liguria (1.54), Molise (1.86), Province of Bolzano (1.96), Province of Trento (1.5), Puglia (1.65), Umbria (1.67) and Valle d’Aosta (1.89).
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