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All the provinces of Tuscany among the 39 in Italy with the highest levels of contagion. But this time it’s not the fault of second homes
Although Tuscany is already with the head of the “yellows” announced by Eugenio Giani for Christmas, there are two maps on the desk of the regional crisis unit that have rekindled at least two warnings about the trend of the curve. A few days after the color change, it is not only discovered that Massa Carrara, Pisa, Grosseto and Siena continue to be among the eleven high-risk Italian provinces, with a Rt contagion index higher than 1.25, comparable to that of Milan, Padua , and therefore in a completely orange or even red scenario (Siena is above 1.5), but also that just where we thought we had left the ghosts of the first wave behind, for a few weeks they seem to have returned. Massa Carrara has (re) become the “Tuscan case”.
Both because of the speed with which the virus moves through the population, and because of the incidence of cases and deaths, the highest in the region in the last 14 days. However, we believed that central Tuscany in particular was hit the hardest on this tour. But let’s go in order.
From the latest monitoring of the Higher Institute of Health, 39 provinces of Italy stand out in which the level of contagion continues to be high (among others also Lodi, Roja, then Frosinone, Belluno, Caltanissetta and Trapani). Although the curve slows down everywhere, they are all enclaves with an Rt above threshold 1 for more than a month, where on average one infected infects more than one person. In short, enough to restart the epidemic in the absence of containment measures. Here, among these, are all the Tuscan provinces. But even 4 are worse. Pisa recorded a Rt at 1.38, Massa Carrara at 1.37, Grosseto at 1.3 and Siena even at 1.55. Almost half of the territory still has data above the guard threshold. But beware: those numbers photograph the speed of contagion on November 11 and RT, which has become a kind of regulatory principle in the geometric progression of colors, is not always reliable when applied to limited contexts.
“It is calculated with a complex equation – explains Francesco Profili, epidemiologist at the Regional Health Agency – but it can be subject to strong fluctuations if the absolute number of weekly infections is low. For example, if in an area I had 50 infections and the following week I went to 100 out of every 100,000 inhabitants, the RT may jump from 1 to 2, but this does not mean that the level of diffusion should be of concern more than an area in the area. that the jump was from 1,000 to 1,500 ”. Here, the transmissibility index in Siena and Grosseto could have increased precisely because of “small” numbers. So much so that the Ars, in the latest report, draws a risk map that places these provinces among the lowest, since they stayed below 200 weekly cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Another issue for Pisa, Lucca, Prato and Pistoia, which have the highest incidence of new positives compared to the population in the last two weeks (ranging from 723 to 763 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants).
But the alarm remains high for Massa Carrara and some areas of the district. The first is a coincidence because at the beginning of the second wave it seemed to have been “saved” compared to the impact suffered in the first. Now, however, epidemiologists cannot explain a surge that began in early November and, although it is cooling down, is still rife with infections. Here in the last 14 days there have been 958 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Only the last week seems to have given a break: Lunigiana registered 248 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, with a reduction of 77%, and the Apuan area 306 out of 100,000, with a decrease of 66% compared to last week. But there is also the highest mortality: 150 deaths per 100 thousand inhabitants, in Florence 94, in Lucca, one of the hotbeds of the first wave with similar numbers of victims, it has now dropped to 65. Why Massa Carrara?
These are the questions that the experts ask themselves, but also the families, the friends of those who die. Here, this time it would not be the “escapees” from the red zones who set the province on fire. “If they were vacationers or people who have come to second homes – confesses an epidemiologist from North West ASL – we would have noticed because they would have emerged among the hospitalized and seriously ill. But that’s not the case and we haven’t yet figured out what produced these numbers. It is true that we have one of the oldest towns in Tuscany, but this would also apply to the Serchio or Amiata valley, where the incidence is one of the lowest. We believe that it is something specific related to our land, but we have to investigate, it will take days, maybe weeks. In the last week, besides Val di Nievole, Pratese and Livornese, there is only one district area with similar data: Versilia. But not with the same levels of mortality. –