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Governor Giani expects a breakthrough in a risk range even lower than orange from 13: but there is still one parameter that worries
FLORENCE. It has more than halved infections in a week, the haunting red high-risk writings have disappeared from the charts, and it no longer has “health system resilience alerts” or transmission so “widespread” that it is “uncontrollable.” even with the establishment of local red zones in the enclaves of the outbreak, one of the parameters imposed by the red zone almost a month ago. That rejection now seems like a distant memory. The virus does not stop but has taken advantage of: the RT calculated on the cases of last week, and dating from November 18, fell to 1.01, after reaching a peak of 1.8 at the end of October; and especially in the region of the black jersey in tracking, Tuscany has become one of the virtuous, capable of conducting epidemiological investigations on 96.6% of positives, reconstructing each contact and thus breaking the chains of contagion. Similar numbers to Valle d’Aosta, Basilicata, Marche and Molise.
In fact, only one parameter out of 21 continues to cause alarm, that of the use of intensive care units, still at 44%, above the risk threshold of 30%. The only obstacle that still does not allow Minister Roberto Speranza to place the region in a low and only moderate risk category. But the latest monitoring of the epidemic developed by the ISS and scrutinized by the control room depicts a completely different picture than the one that imposed the maximum level of restrictions on Tuscans in mid-November. The RT dropped to 1.01, if it confirms Tuscany’s position in a scenario 2, compatible with the yellow zone, it seems to sanction a progressive decrease towards the minimum level of risk.
If the contagion index falls below zero next Friday, Tuscany could find itself in a theoretical green zone. Certainly Eugenio Giani could claim numbers for an advance in the yellow zone, given that next week could be the third consecutive week compatible with scenario 2 (Rt between 1 and 1.25). In addition, in the week of November 23 to 29, 18,267 new cases were registered, 51.7% less than the previous week. There were 330 new outbreaks, but only 3,937 new cases not associated with known transmission chains, after weeks in which this parameter, fundamental to understanding how much monitoring really worked, remained between 10 and 11 thousand. Not only. The positivity rate, which calculates the percentage of positive swabs in the tested subjects, went from 23.9% to 13.7%.
And although the impact of the epidemic on the health system remains high, especially due to the occupancy rate of intensive care beds (31% of non-intensive beds are occupied, below the risk threshold of 40%) , it is considered “the probability is low” that within 30 days the hospitals will be under pressure again.
All good? Not yet. Or rather: yesterday a new little red flag came from the daily bulletin. For the first time since November 28, new cases have exceeded 1,000. To be precise at 1,071, after five consecutive days below a threshold that is more psychological than statistically significant. The number of victims remains high (42, 23 men and 19 women with an average age of 80 years), but some deaths date back a few days and have only now been reported by the Region because they are people with multiple previous pathologies that the Higher Institute of Health had to clarify if Covid was really the cause of death.
Furthermore, it is normal to register a high number of victims now, since the death curve rises at least two weeks later than that of infections, which in Tuscany peaked on November 25. RSA’s black trend continues. There were 8 other elderly deaths in nursing homes. The trend in hospitalizations is improving, down to 1,681.58 fewer, 9 in intensive care. For this reason, Giani is now confident that within a week Hope will be able to apply the governor’s desired change to the new Dpcm. It allows you to wait no more 14 days to change color, but only with authorization from the control room. “We hope so,” he says.
Meanwhile, the League attacks him: “He deceived the Tuscans and merchants – says the regional councilor Giovanni Galli – by promising that we would go to the orange one day earlier.” “Let’s take it with philosophy – Giani closes -, after all, Sunday also opens for stores on the long weekend of December 8, a party to revive the soul of Firenze Bottegaia that Riccardo Marasco exalted with a famous song.”
