“Rt falls to 1.43, but 20 regions are at risk” – Corriere.it

The Istituto Superiore di Sanit published today the new bulletin containing the monitoring data of the situation of the Covid epidemic in Italy. The data, corresponding to the week of November 2 to 8, with updates to November 11, were essential for the movement of five regions, as of Sunday, November 15, in risk areas other than those found today: they are Campania and Tuscany, which pass into the red zone, and Emilia-Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia and Marche, which enter the orange zone.

What do these figures say? As always, many very important things.

1. The Rt index in Italy fell, but is still very high: 1.43. In the November 22-4 period, the TR calculated on symptomatic cases was equal to 1.43; last week it was 1.72.
Why so high? First, because if the Rt index does not fall below 1, it means that the epidemic is expanding: each infected person infects more than another person. Second, because this index is calculated on symptomatic cases: and we know that even asymptomatic people infect. Finally, because there are mean Rt values ​​higher than 1.25 in most of the Regions and higher than one in all the Regions and autonomous provinces. In short: the pandemic is spreading across the country.

2. A further strong increase is seen in cas this weekme leading the incidence in the last 14 days in 648.33 per 100,000 inhabitants in the period 10/26/2020-08 / 11/2020 (compared to 523.74 in the 10/19/2020-01 / 11/2020 period). The increase in cases spread throughout the country.

3. The burden on hospitals is enormous, but the measures seem to work: The epidemic in Italy, writes the ISS, although it is intensified by severity due to a greater impact on welfare services, shows a slight reduction in transmissibility compared to the previous week which, although still very high, could constitute a signal early impact of mitigation measures introduced at the national and regional level as of October 25, 2020.

4. We need a drastic reduction in physical interactions between people. The Higher Institute of Health does not use random words: and calls for the reduction to be drastic, because the pressure on health services must be relieved immediately. In short: it is essential that the population avoid all occasions of contact with people outside their own home that are not strictly necessary and that they stay at home as long as possible.

5. Twenty between Regions and Autonomous Provinces are at risk
Twenty Regions are classified as “high risk” for uncontrolled and uncontrollable transmission of Sars-CoV-2. Only Molise remains the only region with an overall moderate risk rating.

6. Twelve regions have exceeded critical thresholds in medical areas: and this justifies new measures
Twelve Regions have exceeded at least one critical threshold in the medical or intensive care area: and if the current transmissibility is maintained, almost all Autonomous Regions and provinces have a probability greater than 50% of exceeding at least one of these thresholds in the next month . There is a worrying increase in both hospital admissions and intensive care admissions, said the director of the Health Ministry’s Prevention Department, Gianni Rezza, and this clearly justifies more restrictive measures to be taken especially in higher risk regions. and naturally it induces the population to behave with prudence.

7. Data on deaths are largely unchanged.
The average age of Covid victims of 80 years, more than 30 years older than the average age of the sick in general. Only 1.1% of the deceased were under 50 years of age. In particular, as of November 11, there are 472 deaths of those under 50 years of age, of the total 41,737 (1.1%) and 109 deaths of those under 40 years of age (72 men and 37 women from 0 to 39 years old).

No clinical information is available for 31 patients under 40 years of age; Of the rest of the patients, 64 had serious pre-existing pathologies (cardiovascular, renal, psychiatric pathologies, diabetes, obesity) and 14 had not been diagnosed with significant pathologies.

The average of 3.5 pre-existing diseases for the victims of the virus is also confirmed.

The average time (in days) that passes from the onset of symptoms to death is 12 days; from the onset of symptoms to hospitalization is 5 days; from hospitalization to death is 7 days. The time from hospitalization to death was 6 days longer in those who were transferred to resuscitation than in those who were not transferred (12 days versus 6 days).