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The three scenarios proposed by Conte would already be foreseen in the document prepared by the Higher Institute of Health and the Ministry of Health. And Calabria, as indicated by the latest weekly report and the continuous growth of positives, has already been included in phase 4, the most critical. That is why it risks the most restrictive measures with Piedmont and Lombardy
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COSENZA – During the disclosure to the Conte Chamber, he specified that “in the next Dpcm there will be three risk areas. This means that there will not be an indistinct regime in the territory, nor a generalized confinement ”, he explained, but Three areas corresponding to three risk areas will be identified with increasingly restrictive measures.. “Inserting a Region It will be carried out by order of the Minister of Health. These three scenarios proposed by Conte, which “should take into account thevirus replicability index, outbreaks, the number of symptomatic cases, hospitalizations, RSA cases, the percentage of positive swabs, the number of new outbreaks and the employment situation of hospital beds ”, are already foreseen in the document of October 12 prepared by Superior de Salud and Ministry of Health. In particular, the document ‘Prevention and response to COVID-19: evolution of the strategy and planning in the transition phase for the autumn-winter period ‘, last October, indicates 4 risk scenarios, of which the first seems to be out of date to date“.
Calabria with the Lombardy and Piedmont region most at risk
Scenario 4, the most serious – and that according to the latest monitoring of the ISS-Ministry of Health would already affect some Regions including Calabria, – is characterized, in particular, by a situation of critically uncontrolled transmissibility in the health system in the short term, with regional Rt values greater than 1.5 ″. This scenario is based on twenty-one criteria, on the basis of which a “risk coefficient” will be defined. Among these, the prime minister explained, there is “bed occupancy based on actual availability.” Beyond this threshold, there are already 13 Regions, of which two are above threshold 2. Lombardy, Piedmont and Calabria, considered by the latest weekly report of the ISS Regions at high risk with, respectively, an Rt index of 2.01, 1.99 and 1.84.
Scenario 4 Y in turn is subdivided into three bands o risk areas:
- high / very high for more than three consecutive weeks and unmanageable situation (“red”);
- high / very high for less than three consecutive weeks (“orange”);
- moderate (“green” area).
Because Calabria runs the risk of closing
In such a scenario, the ISS notes, there are unlikely situations of less than moderate risk. If the high-risk situation persists for a period of more than three weeks, they most likely will. Very aggressive containment measures are required. This means a more than concrete risk for Calabria (whose RT index rose to 1.84 in the last report and more. 1.6 in the provinces of Cosenza, Catanzaro and Reggio Calabria ) from end in the worst case, the one that foresees even more strict and restrictive measures, if not a blockade. For example, curfew could be brought forward to 6pm instead of 9pm, the closure of bars and restaurants was also extended to lunch. There would be limits to travel to and from other regions, the possible closure of all schools with the extension of distance education, even medium-sized ones, and the closure of non-essential shops and commercial activities. Everything will then depend on how the contagion curve evolves and the permanence in one scenario, more than in another, which will be weekly.
The government should discuss with the regions the measures to be activated in the different bands and which will be more rigid and restrictive in the transition from the orange to the red zone. For the “green zone” regions, however, the measures announced today should be applied (curfew at 9pm, shopping centers closed on weekends, reduction of public transport capacity to 50%, DAD at high schools, etc.). Currently in our Region the contagion situation continues to be very critical with the growth of patients admitted to intensive carea (today there are 19, 6 more than yesterday) but also that of the new positives. In the last 24, 254 have been identified (yesterday there were 245) even in the presence of fewer buffers.
Meanwhile it was weekly monitoring of the control room of the Ministry of Health ahead of tomorrow on the epidemiological situation in Italy. The new data will be the subject of the meeting of the Scientific Technical Committee that has been convened for tomorrow afternoon at 4:00 p.m.
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