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It maintains the Democratic Party and the party that collects the most votes in the Regionals. The League continues, in decline. The 5 stars fall. The slower but steady decline of Forza Italia, while Fratelli d’Italia continues to grow, which in the South is the first party of the center-right. This is how Italian politics moves, according to the table prepared by the Cattaneo Institute as a result of the 2020 Regionals (compared to the results of the last electoral rounds, the numbers in the graph on the page). Of course, we must consider the role of the president’s lists: Zaia will have subtracted from the League, but not all his preferences can be considered certain votes of the Carroccio and that applies to Emiliano and De Luca. Even adding the votes from the presidential lists, then, the situation does not change: at the head the Democratic Party, then the League. The government area prevails over the center-right in a proportion of 57 to 43, we read in the analysis of Marco Valbruzzi and Salvatore Vassallo. The comparison with 2015 Let’s see what happened in each region compared to the regional ones in 2015. In Veneto, the personal achievement of the reconfirmed governor Luca is striking. Zaia, which 5 years ago had taken, with its list, about 427 thousand votes (the 2. 3%) and now more than double, reaching 916 thousand votes (44.6%). The League roster (in 2015 Lega Nord, now Lega Salvini) generally contains (16.9% against the previous 17.8). The difference in the result (50.1% in 2015, 76.8% now) in favor of Zaia the personal list but also FdI, which rises from 2.6% Alabama 9.6% more than compensate for the drop in FI, since 5.9 Alabama 3.6%. In the center left, the Democratic Party descends from 16.6 all’11.9%, but in the meantime there was a break between Renzi and Italia viva, which only led him 0.6%. Crolla M5S: from 10.4 Alabama 2.7%.
Also in Liguria to make a difference in the personal list of the re-elected Giovanni All. Let’s change with Toti actually take the 22.6%. FI, which in 2015 obtained the 12.6%, now stops at 5.3%. The decline of the League is more contained: from 20.2 Alabama 17.1%. On the other hand, the increase in FdI is very strong. Giorgia Meloni’s party rises 3% Alabama 10.9%. On the other hand, the Pd-M5S pact in support of Ferruccio Sansa is not successful: the dem take the 19.9% (of 25.6 2015) and M5S collapses since 22.2 Alabama 7.8%. Italia viva, with + Europa and PSI, stops at 2.4%. In his Tuscany, Renzi’s party achieved an appreciable result (4.5%), but not decisive for Eugenio’s victory. Giani. The Democratic Party, although it maintains the leadership of the region, descends from 46.3% from 2015 to 34.7. The League, while losing the competition, goes from 16.1 Alabama 21.8%. But once again FdI to surprise, going from the 3.8 Alabama 13.5%. The 5 stars have collapsed since 15.1 Alabama 7%. FdI reaches its best result in the Marche region, breaking with the candidate Francesco Acquaroli the region to the center-left and bringing their support from 6.5 Alabama 18.7%. The League is also growing, which 5 years ago began to appear outside the northern perimeter with a 13%, now raised to 22.4. FI descends from 9.4 Alabama 5.9%. In contrast, the Democratic Party has lost ten points since 35.1 Alabama 25.1%, with Italia viva-Psi taking the 3.2%. Bad grillini result: gives 18.9 a 7.1%. Campania also confirms its governor, but this time from the center left. And here the personal factor also stands out. Vincenzo By Luca It is for the Democratic Party a bit like Zaia for the League. His list took the 13.3% against 4.9 last time and ranks second, after the Democratic Party (16.9%), among the 15 lists that have formed its varied electoral poster. Here Iv gets a surprising 7.9%. In the center-right, instead, FI falls, dal 17.8 Alabama 5.2%, While. The 5 stars they had 17%, end with him 9.9%.
Parade of lists (15) also for the other confirmed center-left governor: Michele Emiliano in Apulia. The Democratic Party comes from 19.8 Alabama 17.2%. In the center-right the first FdI party: with the 12.6% compared to 2.4% 2005 at the head of the League (9.6%). FI descends from11.3 all’8.9%. And the 5 stars pass 17.2 Alabama 9.9%. Iv’s result was disappointing: 1.1%. Summarizing the votes of the parties in the six regions where he was elected governor, the ranking sees the Democratic Party in the lead with 1,773,917 votes, followed by Lega with 1,239,778 (but Zaia’s list is fine 915,868 votes). Third-party FdI, with 951,056 votes, while the 5 stars slide to fourth place with 660,751. The ranking is closed by FI (483,174), Iv, which with + Europe obtained some 375,000 votes, and Toti’s party, Cambiamo, with 141,552 votes. The flows The success of the governors of the Democratic Party owes in part to the capacity that they had to attract the votes of the electorate of Cinquestelle. This can be seen in Cattaneo’s flow analysis (which compares the 2019 European Championship and last Sunday’s vote in some cities). The impressive Campania facts: the 70-80% of those who had voted 5 stars a year ago have now chosen De Luca. In Tuscany, the outgoing 5-star vote is split almost evenly between Giani and candidate M5S Galletti. In Puglia, approximately one in five voters choose Emiliano this time. On the other hand, the appeal of De Luca transversal: he retains a large part of the votes of the center-left and steals a lot even from the League (between 63 and the 74%). While Giani’s success is also based on the ability to retain a substantial chunk of center-left voters in 2019, while the center-right has lost to abstention: the dramatization of the dispute has therefore worked. asymmetrically, favoring the center-left. Everyone in Veneto paid tribute to the Doge: Zaia’s record is also due to 72% of the Grillini voters who elected him in Padua (il 32 in Venice), like the twenty% on the voters of Pd. There is a part of the FI electorate that does not vote and abstains. The flows traced by Cattaneo also confirm the failure of the Giallorossi axis in the only region where the agreement was, in Liguria: the alliance is not worth the sum of Pd and 5 Stars, which lose a large part of their voters (especially the grillini, almost the 40% in Genoa) towards Toti.
September 22, 2020 (change September 22, 2020 | 23:18)
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