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the Regional September 20 and 21 coincide with the end of summer and the possible beginning of a “hot” autumn for Italian politics. If the center-right made a complete loot and the center-left lost even a historically “red” region like Tuscany, a new season could indeed open up. Feared by P.S and M5 and, instead, hoped with hope by Lega, Fratelli d’Italia and Forza Italia, the electoral round will be a crossroads: will the Giallorossi majority endure or suffer a new blow to its fragile foundations? Insurance for the Democratic Party and Nicola Zingaretti, perhaps more than the 5 Star Movement, the future passes through this vote.
Polls scare the Democratic Party
Veneto, Liguria, Tuscany, Marche, Campania and Puglia are the battlefields. Liguria and Veneto are largely closed: Toti flies towards 60% – doubling Sansa -, while Luca Zaia does even better, reaching even 75% of voting intentions. In short, a plebiscite.
According to the latest poll Tuscany is in the balance – Susanna Ceccardi is indeed one step away from catching up with Eugenio Giani with her voting intentions – and then the polls could also call a sensational 5-1 for the center-right; In addition to Tuscany, in fact, the Marches and Puglia would also pass to the center-right, while the center-left should be able to preserve Campania, where Vincenzo De Luca seems to be able to conquer Stefano Caldoro.
The (no) alliance with the M5
The fact that the Democratic Party and the 5 Star Movement could not find the square in the candidacy, with the exception of Liguria, where dem and grillini have agreed that Ferruccio Sansa is the challenger of Giovanni Toti, says a lot about the climate between the allies. It is certainly not new that they fight, and not a little, to get along.
As mentioned, the only region in which the Pd of Zingaretti & Co managed to reach an agreement with the government allies is Liguria, but theyellow and red axis he is destined to lose against Toti, a strong man from the center right.
Despite Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s invitations to reach an agreement, Pd and M5 have fought, especially in the case of Marche and Puglia, and now they risk a lot.
In fact, precisely in Marche and Puglia, the failure of the alliance could cost dearly: Francesco Acquaroli is ahead of Maurizio Mangialardi – the candidate for the grid Gian Mario Mercorelli receives around 15% – just as Fitto has an advantage over the outgoing demgovernor Michele Emiliano; the pentastellata Antonella Laricchisa would take home 15%, vote more vote less.
Ultimately, in both contexts, the Democratic Party could pay the price of not agreeing with the allies of the government headed by Regent Vito Crimi.
Tuscany and the ghosts of Zinga
Region “red par excellence” together with Emilia-Romagna and fort of the Italian left, Tuscany is no longer an impregnable fortress. Last year the center-right, with Lucia Borgonzoni from the Northern League, took a step away from the blow: Stefano Bonaccini was confirmed as president, but his was not a great victory, quite the opposite. Now it is Tuscany’s turn and this time the Democratic Party could capitulate: Susanna Ceccardi, in fact, is very close to Eugenio Giani.
The latest poll on voting in Tuscany conducted by Winpoll-Cise for The sun 24 hoursIn fact, he speaks of a face to face, with the dem Giani at 43% and the exponent of the Carroccio at a mustache, at 42.5%. Less than 10% from Irene Galletti for the M5s.
If the center-right won, it would be a very hard blow for the Italian left. And at least this time Zinga could no longer pretend nothing was wrong and the many (ex) Democrats throwing one at him leadership too opaque could get revenge by asking for it resignation.
The post-voting scenario
On Monday 21 the polling stations will close and the votes will begin to be counted: at midnight it will be known who won and who lost. And in what ends. If the electoral volumes of the Democratic Party (and the 5 Star Movement) were lower than in the European elections, something could happen. Second Carlo Buttaroni from high school Technical The match will end 4-2 for the center-right. But there are some “buts”.
Contacted by phone from ilGiornale.itIn fact, he tells us: “According to the numbers collected and analyzed, the round should end 4-2 for the center-right, but in some electoral duels the distances are so small that possible reversals should be expected. The unknown competition could overturn the current estimates … “.
However, according to the interviewer, special attention should be paid to what electoral result from Pd. Buttaroni, in fact, thinks that the dem team has much more to lose than the grillini: “If the Democratic Party had a particularly negative result in terms of electoral volume – down three or four points compared to 22.7% of the Europeans – I think precisely that a phase of very high entropy would open to the Nazarene. Which would make the Count-bis much weaker than a defeat (which was already planned, ed) of the 5 Star Movement. So, be careful … ” .
In short, if dem performance were particularly negative it is quite possible to be in the middle of a congress permanent open air, which would put the executive in serious difficulties. That is why the one on September 20 and 21 is a vote that can really annul everything.
