[ad_1]
Expectations determine the perception of the result of elections: the center-right was the great favorite of these regional teams and aspired to a final 5 to 1 that had a taste of victory. The 3 to 3 that was outlined during the afternoon of this Monday, however, is actually a draw for which the center-left smiles above all.
ALSO READ -> Regional elections, Zingaretti: “Security decrees to be amended, Pd first party but no reorganization trap”
After all, the only region that changes color is Marche: a small but significant region, where the center-right had never won in many years. However, already a year ago in Marche the advantage of the center-right in the European Championships reached twenty percentage points: the reversal of the trend in the opinion of the Marches is not new in the last day.
All the symbolic regions of this election, those considered in the balance, namely Puglia and Tuscany, have not only reconfirmed the center left, but have done so with proportions higher than expected. We are witnessing a dynamic similar to that observed in Emilia-Romagna at the beginning of the year: a great recovery of the center-right at the polls in some democratic strongholds, a face-to-face climate that was breathed in the last days of the electoral campaign , and finally a consequent mobilization of the center left, which in these regions also took advantage of the useful vote. The technique of gathering troops so as not to lose a symbolic region also worked this time. Salvini has played everything in this region but this strategy, in the end, caused a boomerang effect, favoring the mobilization of the center-left.
In addition to the resistance of the strong Tuscan, a more detailed analysis of the vote reveals a basic territorial trend. The North certifies the triumph of the center-right governors: Toti clearly exceeds 50% of the votes in Liguria, Zaia He will probably beat all records for the election of a regional president in Republican history, receiving the approval of three out of four Venetians and achieving great success with his own personal list. His victory once again highlights the emergence of a “northern question”: the center-left is not competitive in the north of the country. Not even together with the 5 stars: the Giallorossi alliance, a laboratory in the field only in Liguria, is worse than expected, and after the failure of Umbria it remedies another great defeat. Not only does the gap between center left and center right increase compared to five years ago, but it also widens compared to Europeans, when the sum between the Democratic Party and the allies on the one hand and the 5 Stars on the other approached to the center-right alliance. If it is not the gravestone of an electoral alliance, it remains a failure that will reopen the debate within the two parties.
In the South, on the other hand, the center-left wins by relying on its administrators: Vincenzo De Luca tripled the votes of Stefano Caldoro in the third reissue of his comparison, after 2010 and 2015, while in Puglia Michele Emiliano performed a remarkable muscle test, reversing a challenge that on paper saw the center-right far ahead. These victories are a great achievement for him Democratic partyBut the driving force is precisely the two governors. The victory of the center-left in the South is significant because in recent years the South had been the bastion of the 5 Stars, which were drained by both De Luca and Emiliano: the great result of the two governors is due to a transversal consensus , between 5 stars and center right. This double of the center-left in Puglia and Campania also marks an important setback in the project of expansion of the Salvini League towards a “national party”: not only do the center-right candidates lose, but the League lists do not they break through.
In general, beyond this territorial gap between a North anchored to the center-right and a South that looks again to the center-left, the country is united by the trust in the outgoing governors. For years, electoral analysis has shown that outgoing mayors and presidents no longer enjoy the competitive advantage they could have exhibited ten years ago: Nomination and reelection rates have dropped significantly. In these regional elections, however, the outgoing governors take revenge. Zaia, De Luca, Toti, Emiliano: all the outgoing win the elections, some with historical plebiscites. It is a consensus that stems from the long wave of management of the pandemic crisis, and the regional presidents have taken advantage of a tendency of solidary and trusting opinion towards the institutions.
The tie smiles more at the center-left than at the center-right, but it certainly affects the 5 Stars, who once again leave the regional vote with poor electoral performance both in the “pure” version, with their own standard bearers, as well as in the “governor” version, allied with Pd. The clear victory in the referendum is for Di Maio a symbolic battle, but the results of the voting in the regions speak more and more of a bipolarity between the two traditional poles.
© REPRODUCTION RESERVED
[ad_2]
