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Fausto Carioti
There is something epic and ridiculous at the same time in the enthusiasm with which the Five Stars run towards the beautiful death. Epic, because to find something similar in Western history you have to go back to a Disney documentary from the 1950s, in which thousands of lemmings, little Arctic rodents, ran to throw themselves off a cliff to drown in the ocean. It is ridiculous because, while preparing for a mass suicide, Luigi Di Maio and the other followers of the sect lock themselves in the banks, ready to make a government with Kim Jong-un, Darth Vader or whoever proposes it.
Everything, so as not to give up the first regular paid job they have had until the natural expiration of the legislature. It wasn’t supposed to be like that, of course. When they launched the challenge to cut parliamentarians, they imagined that in the meantime they would consolidate their position as the first party and aimed to govern alone in the next legislature. Privately, many of them regretted it. Because now they are about to take a double hit. The combined effect of “their” reduction of elected officials from 945 to 600 (the last flag went down after all the others were lowered, from no to Tav to the ceiling of two terms) and the collapse of the consensus, nailed by below 16%: less than half of what was taken in the 2018 Policies.
RESIST
The result? A massacre. Only one in three of them will be able to escape and have a seat in the next parliament. The others lined up with the navigators in search of a new job. If Italians attended the polling stations with the current electoral orientation, as a result of the probable victory of Yes in the referendum and the electoral reform that the majority is drafting (proportional law with a 3% barrier, purposely made to cripple Matteo Salvini ), only 104 pentastellati would find a place between the House and the Senate. And since today, in parliament, there are all 295, it means that between one legislature and another there will be 191 pens: a death rate of 65%. Calculations that somehow they also made. This explains the incessant transhumance to other shores (37 have left since the beginning of the legislature) and the fury with which the remaining Pasdaran defend the government of Giuseppe Conte.
Resist resist resist, grab everything that happens on the table and pray that, between now and Armageddon, something changes. The number of parties in the next parliament appears in a study recently published by the Cattaneo institute, the first to simulate what would happen if yes were voted and the voting rules were rewritten. In this work, however, there is no comparison with the current situation, from which important information is obtained. For example with regard to the Brothers of Italy. Giorgia Meloni’s party has seen its consensus grow a lot, so much so that today it is 14.8%, more than 10 points more than what it achieved in the political elections. This would allow it not only to absorb the cut in parliamentarians without losses, but even to double its troop of deputies and senators: there are 50, they would become 97.
LEAGUE BENINO, FI MALE
It is not the only formation that would win something. The Democrats would win three more seats than now (128 instead of 125), but the main reason is another: their contingent in this legislature has already been decimated by the division of the Renzianos and, therefore, despite the cut in the parliamentarians and the slowness of the polls, which always give them around 20%, their representation would not be penalized. The price would be paid in full by those of Italia Viva, today in 49: the day after the political elections, if they managed to get more than 3%, they would find themselves in 15. Limited losses for the League, which after the cut would have 167 elected in the two houses, 23 less than today, but it would be the first force in the two houses and would increase its weight from 20 to 28% of parliamentarians. Instead, the impact would be very painful for Forza Italia, where there would be 40, 109 less than today. Silvio Berlusconi would still have the relief of being indispensable: without his party, the center-right could not govern. While the Five Stars are denied any consolation: neither a new yellow-green alliance with the League nor a reissue of Giallorossi’s coalition would have the numbers to rule and thus guarantee Di Maio and his associates more perks. as minister.
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