Red, orange and green areas: 7 regions at risk



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The new monitoring of the regional data of the control room is not ready, so to establish which regions will fall into the three restriction bands, red, orange and yellow, we will use the numbers collected last Friday and referred to the week between on October 19 and 25. . The control room would have decided it in the morning, which met in an extraordinary way to support the decisions of the Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza, and the Regions with new numbers. But the data is not enough to make another follow-up and among other things we observe a serious deterioration in communications from the regions, which send incomplete numbers.

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by Michele Bocci


Three red and two orange regions

According to the data in Friday’s document, the “red” regions would be Calabria, Lombardy and Piedmont, the “orange” regions of Puglia and Sicily. Then there are Veneto and Liguria, which could be sub judice. All the others are “yellow”. This is always based on the Friday follow-up, which probably won’t exhaust the question. The policy is discussing other regions considered in the balance, even if of the numbers that have communicated, for example, Campania, Val d’Aosta, the province of Bolzano.

Two criteria for three bands of restrictions

The new dpcm determines which regions should be included in the red, orange, and yellow categories. There are two pillars of the decision and they group together 21 indicators, from the occupancy of beds in intensive care to the ability to monitor, from the spread of the virus to the speed of swabbing. The first and most important is the “global risk rating”, which is now high or moderate in Italian regions. The second is the “scenario”, based mainly on RT, and has a level between 1 and 4. According to the new dpcm, articles 1 bis and 1 ter, the regions that have a high risk and a “scenario 3” enter in the intermediate category (orange). In this situation are Puglia and Sicily. Those with high risk and “scenario 4” end up in the category with the most recipes (red). Like Piedmont, Lombardy and Calabria. The others remain yellow. But in the follow-up, the high risk is also assigned to the Regions that send incomplete data. This is the case of Liguria and Veneto, which also have scenario 3 and, therefore, would end up in the orange category. However, given the situation, you may be asked to submit complete new data for a more secure evaluation.

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We made the rules and acquired the data, which, as you can see, are beginning to be a bit old, now the application of the new system begins and it is not ruled out that between now and when Minister Speranza dictates the ordinances in the different regions something will not change yet.

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