[ad_1]
The ECB meeting and the Press conference by Lagarde undisputed protagonists of today, Thursday, September 10.
Unsurprisingly, the Board of Directors has left interest rates unchanged, but the general attention has not diminished, rather the opposite.
The entire market was looking forward to the governor’s press conference. In fact, September was immediately perceived as a special reunion. interesting.
In this link the live broadcast of the event while in the following lines all the updates translated into Italian will be available in real time.
ECB meeting: the press release and the decisions taken
As the entire market expected, Christine Lagarde’s institute did not touch interest rates:
- 0.00% on main financing operations;
- 0.25% on the marginal credit facility;
- -0.5% on deposits.
In a press release published at 1:45 pm, the central bank also reiterated that rates will remain at current levels or lower until inflation moves strongly towards the target.
Also no news on the front PEPP or in front Quantitative easing. More generally, the text has not changed since the last ECB meeting.
>> UPDATES WILL FOLLOW
The following content was written prior to the publication of the decisions and covered the market expectations for today’s meeting of the ECB.
– –
Forecasts
Compared to the last monetary policy meeting things have changed a bit: Macroeconomic data showed signs of slow recovery, the euro appreciated to almost 1.20 against the dollar (and then lost ground), core inflation hit a new all-time low in August, and the Fed changed strategy on its target of 2 %.
The September ECB meeting had to immediately address all these aspects. According to most observers at the post-meeting press conference, Lagarde will not communicate no immediate changes politics, but it could pave the way for future action.
The governor, for example, could operate a very slight change in orientation, perhaps supported by the new economic projections of the Board, ready to revise the inflation estimates downward in the medium term.
Today, therefore, could be the perfect opportunity to lay the necessary foundations to increase the PEPP, Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program, perhaps at the meeting next December. On this point, however, the observers were divided: for some, in fact, those of the central institute will be mere confirmations.
In principle, today’s ECB meeting will not produce any immediate and concrete news.
However, it will be essential to observe the new growth and inflation forecasts. In June, the Board of Directors had estimated the following rates for GDP:
- -8.7% in 2020;
- + 5.2% in 2021;
- + 3.3% in 2022.
For consumer prices, however, he made the following forecasts:
- + 0.3% in 2020;
- + 0.8% in 2021;
- + 1.3% in 2022.
The question arises: if there will be, how much will the revisions amount to? Lagarde’s press conference will provide all the answers the market requires.
The meeting will probably not lack feedback on the Brexi, given what has happened in recent days, as well as the expected statements about the recent fluctuations in the euro-dollar exchange rate.
The elements to monitor in the meeting
To summarize, therefore, the main factors to monitor today will be many:
- state of the economy with coronavirus
- new growth estimates;
- new inflation estimates;
- comments on the euro-dollar exchange rate;
- any clues about the future of the PEPP;
- any change in orientation;
- inflation targeting statements;
- Brexi.
The hours of the ECB meeting in September will be the traditional ones: in ore 13:45 The decisions of the central institution and its press release will be published. Lagarde’s press conference will begin at 14:30.
