[ad_1]
Yesterday 96 positive in Ravenna. Today, October 28, the same “hard” figure. Impressive numbers. In October, so far we have had 848 positives in the province, an average of 30 per day. In March, there were 579 positives in total. In April there were 402. In September there were only 369, so to speak. It is true that most of the positives are asymptomatic today, while last spring they were mostly ill. Just as it is true that hospital admissions are still limited in number, however, admissions are continually increasing. And this is worrying. The stress is mainly in territorial medicine, which has to track down a large number of people who have come into contact with the positives and make a lot of swabs (1,300 in Ravenna in the last day). Meanwhile, the patients still ill (the so-called active cases) were 686 as of October 26 (that is, 346 more in the last week); of these patients 49 are hospitalized and 637 in home isolation, of the latter 351 asymptomatic and 286 with mild symptoms, compatible with the home isolation regime. To take stock of the situation, we once again called on Dr. Raffaella Angelini, who heads Public Health within Romagna ASL, to help.
THE INTERVIEW
Dr. Angelini, October was a bad month with a very strong increase in cases in Ravenna, especially in the last 15 days. And sadly, there is also an increase in hospitalizations. Currently there are 49, while there are 5 hospitalizations in intensive care, according to data from yesterday, October 27. Help us once again to take stock and read this situation.
“We are facing a strong circulation of the virus, which is really a challenge. This new wave is putting pressure on the system, not so much the hospital system yet, but certainly the territorial monitoring system. The number of positive cases still today is 96, exactly as yesterday, with more than 1,300 swabs, which means a percentage of positive swabs equal to 7%, therefore not very high and certainly less than the national average . This shows that we are able to track and sample many, because I assure you that 1300 swabs in 24 hours is a lot. We are still in the presence of a high percentage of asymptomatic patients, for example 70% of today’s positives are asymptomatic. That is, people tracked and found in the absence of an ongoing illness. Then there are the mild symptoms and hospitalizations. As you said, the latter are increasing. “
Does this high percentage of asymptomatic people also depend on the fact that the average age of the positives has dropped since the first wave?
“Actually, the average age is increasing compared to a few months ago, August in particular. The average age, on the other hand, is actually lower than last spring, because the way of identifying positive cases and the composition of the overall picture are different. Previously, tampons were used primarily for the sick. Now, among the many positive cases, there are many schoolchildren who are lower than the average age, but at the same time from the clinical point of view they do not represent a problem, because very often they are completely asymptomatic. However, the elderly are also increasing and these worry us, because they are more fragile ”.
A month and a half after the opening of schools, we now have a broader case study, how do you assess the level of contagion in the world of schools, what is the balance of this reopening?
“The schools themselves, thought of as the assistance of teachers and students in the school environment, have not created particular risk situations.”
The problem is the before and after, which revolves around school.
“Yep. In general, it is the problem of circulation and socialization between people. I also say this in relation to the controversies that followed the last Dpcm. None of the activities closed or paralyzed at 18, it was blocked because they had dangerous outbreaks inside Those activities are closed to decrease the opportunities for contact between people, sociality. This is the fundamental reason for the provision, even if I do not consider the merits of the correctness of the choice. “
It seems that an attempt was made to establish a kind of curfew starting at 6 in the afternoon, without calling it a curfew, because the word is scary.
“Well, it’s not really a curfew, because you can go wherever you want after six in the afternoon. You just can’t go to the movies, to the theater, to the bar, to the restaurant. But if you want to take a walk or visit a friend, you can. If it had been a real curfew, he would not have been able to move except for proven needs. Is not the same. Therefore, what has been established is not a disguised curfew, it is one of the possible systems to reduce the circulation of people and the virus. But don’t make me tell you if it’s right or wrong: it’s not my job. I say that we are in a situation where we all have to assume a dangerous growth in the spread of the virus. The fact that hospitalizations remain low for now is only partially reassuring, but as the number of infected people increases at the same rate, hospitalizations also increase. And the virus, we know, does not warn us before it arrives and is about to hit hard. So, we must be ready. We must scrupulously follow the provisions and recommendations of the Dpcm, which invites everyone to be cautious and asks us to limit social relationships that are not strictly necessary. This must be understood in your urgency. “
In short, no one will send the guards home or receive a fine if one invites friends, but we must understand that at this time it is not the time for nightlife, gatherings or parties …
“Yes, one of the last cases I have dealt with is that of four friends, two couples, who got infected because they all went to the restaurant together in the same car. One was positive and infected the other three in the cabin. You should limit your contacts and distance yourself, protect yourself with masks and wash your hands frequently. The recommendations are always the same. They must be followed. “
She told me that the hospitals are not stressed yet, but the territorial medicine that deals with tracing is already stressed because there are too many, too many cases to trace and swabs to do.
“That’s right. When I tell you 96 cases on a day like today, I also tell you that to be effective it has to be fast, I have to take a day not a week, because in this case the follow-up would make little sense. So we have to trace all contacts and put them in solitary confinement within 24 hours. Now, since there is no confinement in the house, for every positive it means on average 5 or 10 contacts. On a day like today we are talking about 500-1,000 people in total. It is a very hard job and you cannot maintain a rhythm and work stress of this level for a long time. And if we talk about schoolchildren, who in addition to class may also attend the sports association or the parish, then the people who tracking can also reach 20, 30 or 40. So we continue to endure the situation, but every day it becomes more difficult. “
She doesn’t have the crystal ball, but how do you see the next two or three weeks?
“We know that the incubation time of the disease is at least 14 days and we know that, regardless of the measures that are taken, we will see the effects, positive or not, in two or three weeks. Before seeing these benefits, if any, the disease evolves according to its natural course. So, taking into account that from October people began to worry more and protect themselves more and considering that we then had two Dpcm with softer measures first and stronger measures later, I expect the positives to grow in the next 15 days. “
We will only see the results of the last Dpcm in mid-November.
“Right. I hope even sooner, as a result of that spontaneous course correction that took place in October. But, at the moment, there are still no signs of a change.”
How is the mass vaccination campaign against influenza going?
“It is going well. From what I have been told, the GPs have practically finished their first supply of vaccines. Now we are finding new doses to continue the campaign and people who have not yet done so should be vaccinated, there is time until December” .
In conclusion, doctor, the situation is very serious but it is not yet dramatic. We have time to do the things that need to be done to keep things from falling apart. Is this a correct summary?
“It is the right thing to do. However, to prevent the situation from becoming dramatic, we must all do our part, understand and do what is necessary to prevent the circulation and spread of the virus. We have to make new sacrifices. Close cinemas and theaters, resign A snack or dinner in the restaurant is not good, but we have to do it, because otherwise we would completely cancel the sacrifices that we made in spring and that had given excellent results in reducing the circulation of the virus ”.
[ad_2]
