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A “very difficult” agreement hangs by the thread of “common sense” and those steps necessary to undo the last 3 unsolved thorny knots in which for now the two parties are struggling to meet. The EU and the UK remain “distant” at the moment – awaiting the final political showdown entrusted tomorrow night to face-to-face in Brussels between Prime Minister Tory, Boris Johnson and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen – to square the circle of a free trade agreement for the post-Brexit: residual objective that must be seized by the tail to close the game of a divorce, however “difficult” it may be, but at least protected from the risks of trade war and customs chaos of a true no-deal. An objective for which the parties are not willing to bet in these hours – between authentic differences and crossed tactical warnings – but on which at least some positive signals are finally extended. In particular, thanks to the parallel agreement “in principle” with which European Commissioner Maros Sefcovic and British Minister Michael Gove, co-chairs of a joint commission, have overcome the obstacle concerning the future borders of Northern Ireland. Define some shared interpretive “solutions” of the withdrawal agreement signed last year, such as convincing the Johnson administration to withdraw the most controversial parts of two internal bills (first, the Internal Market Bill, proposed last night by the Chamber of Municipalities in a comprehensive version considered unacceptable by the 27) with which London threatened to claim the power to unilaterally modify the pacts, in violation of international law, in order to ensure its sovereignty over Ulster in the event of a no trade agreement. An additional controversy that had overshadowed, in the eyes of the EU, the good faith of the Brexiteer team; and whose solution is likely to be aided by pressure from the president-elect of the United States, Joe Biden, of Irish family roots, who for some time had warned his British ally of the consequences of a reckless move that could potentially trigger tensions in the future pure to the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland: where the absence of physical barriers is protected by the historic peace accords of Good Friday of 1998, of which Washington is co-guarantor. The step forward at this point is by no means the turning point. “I hope it creates a positive momentum,” but “we are still a long way from the free trade agreement,” Sefcovic himself said. A warning bordering on pessimism echoed from the trench that Boris Johnson opposed, according to which the final compromise “seems very, very difficult right now”, even if “hope is the last to die” and ” the power of common sense “can always prevail. In a context in which the conservative prime minister behind Brexit insists on repeating that he does not want to give in to the “principles of democracy” and the newly discovered “sovereignty” of his country and to evoke a “prosperous” future even in the case of a no-deal: despite estimates that (the Covid tsunami was not enough) indicate a reaction of at least -7.6% in 15 years on British GDP in the presence of a similar eventuality, reduced to 4.9 with a business agreement.
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