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FQChart is the weekly arithmetic average of polls on voting intentions of Italians exclusively for Il Fatto Quotidiano. All the polls published by the main electoral institutions in the week just ended contribute to the average
Week from 12/20 to 12/26/2020
The latest 2020 chart is an opportunity to take stock of annual performance of individual matches.
The League It closes the year exactly as it started: it is the leading Italian political force, but it lost about eight points compared to last January, down to 23.3% (-0.6% compared to last week).
Between ups and downs, the consent of the Democratic party which grows again (+0.6), reaching 21%. A success compared to 12 months ago, when it was affected by two divisions (Italia Viva and Action), although the results of the regional elections in Emilia Romagna and Tuscany were clear signs of estate in your electorate. The problem for the Democratic Party, however, remains to get out of its own border and convince in 2021 the bands of voters who view the work of the big parties with skepticism. It will not be easy.
An operation that, instead, was successful (to the detriment of the allies) for the Brothers from Italy (16.1% this week). Giorgia Meloni’s party, in fact, in one year doubled the consensus and quadrupled the result of the 2018 political elections. By 2021, FdI’s ambitious goal is to become the first party of the center-right coalition.
Still lost 5 star movement (14.1% on average and a bad 12.7% this week for Bidimedia). In the case of the grillini this is 2-3 percentage points less than in early 2020. Not a bad result, but the comparison is ruthless if compared to that of just two years before (the “famous” 33%).
Breathe a sigh of relief Go Italy (almost 7% this week) that seemed destined to disappear during the year, when polls registered cutthroat numbers between 4 and 5%. General positive balance, although not incisive, however Action by Carlo Calenda, who after a smooth start managed to overcome the fateful threshold of 3% (3.3 on average this week with a flattering 3.7 from Euromedia Research). A result also obtained against + Europe and the “rival” Italy Long Live.
The Left Alliance in government also performed well, at 3.2% this week and a positive trend for most of 2020.
Finally, Italia Viva, which this week falls below 3%, probably as a result of threats of a government crisis feared by Renzianos and that voters are struggling to understand. It was a difficult year for Iv: there are attempts to “empty” Pd and Fi losers In the face of the loyalty of the voters of the two parties, not convinced by a new political path, while the birth of the competitor Acción ended up reducing by half the chances of reaching and exceeding 5% (while the initial goal was 10%). These numbers are too low even for a “palace leader” like Matteo renzi.
(Institutes considered: Swg, Euromedia, Quorum / Youtrend, Bidimedia)
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