Polls, center right first in the new Parliament with any electoral law. Zingaretti and Di Maio’s popularity is growing

If we were to vote with the current mixed electoral law (Rosatellum) or with the new proportional on which the agreement between Pd and M5s exists (Germany), in both cases the center right would get the most in new parliament by 600 members. The last one reveals it survey made by Ipsos for Corriere della Sera, according to which the results of the Regionals and the constitutional referendum did not have a great impact on the orientation of citizens to vote in the event of early elections. At the party front, everything seems to have stopped two months ago, when the institute that runs Nando Pagnoncelli conducted the latest nationwide survey. Change in place the approval rating of leaders: that for the government and for Prime Minister Conte it is still very high (62 and 65% respectively), slight growth for Zingaretti (30) and Di Maio (29), while both Salvini and Meloni are losing ground. The appreciation for Berlusconi rises at one point, perhaps as a sign of proximity to the contagion of COVID-19.

According to Ipsos, the League therefore it remains in first place with 24% (in a strong decrease compared to the European 2019), followed by P.S (19.3%) e M5S (18.6%), both with a fall of 0.3%. It also loses ground Brothers ofItaly (16.7%), 1.5 points less. They close Go Italy (6.8%), Italia viva (3.1%) and Carlo Calenda Action (3%). What would happen in case of going back to the polls? The first Ipsos hypothesis, based on surveys conducted from the end of May to the end of September for a total of 29 thousand interviews Weighted by aligning the data with current voting trends, it is based on current electoral law, which establishes a majority and proportional participation. Net of the problem of the schools, which must be redesigned after the court was elected, in the Chamber there would be a clear majority of the center-right with 227 seats (more than half of whom would go to the League), compared to an estimated 114 for the center-left and 55 for the M5S. In the Senate, the center-right would collect 112 elected against the 57 from the center-left and 27 from the pentastellati. Figures not very different if the Pd and the M5 decide to join forces: the proportion in the Chamber would be 218 seats for the center-right against 161 for the Giallorossi coalition. 112 to 80 at Palazzo Madama.

If, on the contrary, the new electoral law in which Parliament is working, based on a purely proportional With a 5% barrier, only 7 political forces would enter Montecitorio (the main 5 plus Italia Viva and Svp). 6 in the Senate (the Renzians would not make it). With a threshold of 3%, however, the party founded by Calenda would also enter. In both cases, the majority would always go to the center right: Lega, Fdi and Fi would win 219 seats in the Chamber and 112 in the Senate. The gap in the event of a 3% bombing is smaller: 206 seats in the House and 108 in the Senate for the center-right, compared to 179 and 90 for the possible Giallorossi coalition. The role of Forza Italia as a needle on the balance is decisive in all settings.