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Harm reduction, which is also a medical term. The day after the preventive shutdown for AstraZeneca, which has made things very complicated, the news about the advance of Pfizer BioNTech allows Italy to look at the next few weeks with a little less pessimism. Our share of the ten million doses to be given in the second quarter instead of the third, as usual, equal to 13.51%. Then the advance is valid for us one million 351 thousand doses. Not a few, given the enormous demand and pressure that currently exists from all countries in the world. But not even a figure capable of making us change our perspective if we consider that between April and June the total doses expected from Italy are equivalent to 52 million. This is still good news, given the situation.
The vaccination campaign
More than the photograph of the moment, however, we must look at the film.
In the next weeks. Since the beginning of the year Pfizer BioNTech is trying to strengthen global production, to get there in 2021 to distribute 2 billion doses compared to the 1 billion and 300 thousand initially expected. This means that even in the third quarter of the year, between July and September, there could be an increase in doses compared to prognosis. Even higher than the one announced yesterday. Another good news with the addition of a paradox. Just two months ago, at the time of the first supply cuts, Italy was ready to denounce Pfizer even for an attack on public health. There was another government, there was another emergency commissioner. But now the possibility of saving at least part of the schedule of our vaccination campaign depends on the American multinational.
Herd immunity at the end of September
Another step to study, this time all Italian, that of reduce
stocks even more, which had already been lowered from the 30% threshold set to guarantee withdrawals. In the new plan indicated a reserve of 1.5% of the doses to be addressed in case of emergency in very critical areas. It could be sacrificed or at least reduced to get something back. Using these two levers, Pfizer’s Advances and Inventory Reduction, in the government there is a conviction that you can delay a little with respect to the declared objective of achieving herd immunity at the end of September.
AstraZeneca, tomorrow Ema’s verdict
All this assuming that tomorrow the Ema,
the European Medicines Agency, confirm AstraZeneca security and the campaign can restart at full capacity. Sources of Palazzo Chigi let it be known that in this case the four-day stoppage would weigh for about 200 thousand doses. And that the delay could be reabsorbed in a couple of weeks, also thanks to the 707,850 doses of Pfizer BioNTech on the way. at the end of March. All this should make it possible to recover the stop and sterilize, at least in part, the possible increase in cancellations and resignations in the coming months at AstraZeneca. With the awareness that it is correct to clarify everything in its entirety but also that hard-to-stop psychosis.
Covid vaccines, knowledge:
The other vaccines: Moderna, Janssen, Sputnik V
Of course there are also worst case scenarios,
that move the finish line until the end of the year or even more. If the stop at AstraZeneca was longer, all these adjustments would be small. And perhaps the other corrective measures that the government is working on, together with the European Commission, are not enough either. And that is the hypothesis of boosting the supplies of the other two vaccines authorized so far, Modern and Janssen by Johnson & Johnson. Or the enlistment of the Russian Sputnik V, on which there is always a lot of pressure from Italy. For now, the EMA’s verdict is awaited. With some anxiety.
March 17, 2021 (change March 17, 2021 | 07:01)
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