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What will happen after January 6? Apparently there won’t be everything for free and we won’t return, at least not immediately, to the status quo before Christmas, nor to the division of regions by color. The government is working to enact a new measure that according to rumors could see the light already tonight. It will probably be a “bridge” decree from the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza to issue the regulations in force from January 7 to 15. Why these two dates? Simple: because the day after the Epiphany the decree law 172/2020 (the so-called Christmas decree) expires, while eight days later the Dpcm of December 3, 2020 will lose its validity. As of January 15, new Dpcm that should – let’s use the conditional – also introduce a “white” area for regions that have an epidemiological situation that is not particularly worrying. But let’s go in order.
New rules from January 7 to 15: the decree of the Ministry of Health
According to the rules currently in force, on January 7 Italy should wake up completely yellow, while on January 8 the order of the Ministry of Health is awaited on the basis of data collected by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità in the usual weekly monitoring. But with the increase in infections, the executive does not want to take any risks. Hence the need to extend containment measures until January 15. A Council of Ministers, it was learned, is scheduled for this afternoon: the call could be at 9:00 p.m. The most viable hypothesis seems to be to adopt softer measures than those of the Christmas decree but equally valid for the entire national territory. . At least until January 11. Basically, you could have a situation like this:
- January 7-8: Italy completely in the yellow zone;
- January 9-10: orange zone throughout the national territory;
- January 11-15 – Color grading system should be back in effect;
At risk orange or red zone there would be Veneto, Liguria, Calabria and perhaps also Lombardy, Puglia and Basilicata. But this is only one of the hypotheses. It is not excluded, for example, that you decide to continue with the rules already in force during the Christmas holidays that include the red zone on holidays and the day before and the orange zone on other days. It is a more remote possibility, but one that cannot be ruled out a priori. As always, it will all depend on the epidemiological data that the CTS technicians bring to the table for comparison.
Red and orange zone: the ten regions at risk since January 11
Towards a new Dpcm: as of January 15, everything changes
After January 15, things could change even more with the introduction of a white zone for “the regions, bands or zones with better indicators, and in these areas places of culture, such as museums, theaters, concerts and cinema, could reopen. In this area, the bars and restaurants would operate without a time limit and even the swimming pools and gyms would return to their maximum capacity, but always maintaining the basic rules of containment, such as mandatory mask, spacing and collection prohibition ”.
In summary:
A bridging measure is due to take effect on January 7, probably a decree, effective until January 15. The most likely hypothesis is the one we report below.
- yellow zone: January 7-8
- Orange Zone January 9-10
- return of the division by colors from January 11. In this case, some regions could end up in the red zone again;
As of January 15, a new Dpcm or decree should further change the criteria, introducing a “white zone” for the lower risk regions, but also modifying the classification parameters that will be more severe.
In short, the idea is to activate the orange zone when the Rt contagion index is above 1 and in the 1.25 range and activate the red zone when it exceeds 1.25. The Fact recalls today that on January 8 the Istituto Superiore di Sanità will disseminate the new monitoring of the infection, which must be compiled on the basis of new evaluation parameters of the Rt index, the speed of spread of the infection yesterday at 0.99 national according to the calculations of the physicist Roberto Battiston of the University of Trento. According to the new “modified” Rt indicator, Emilia Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia and Marche would be at risk.
A similar possibility is seen with smoke in his eyes by the governor of the Abruzzo region Marsilio who expected to see the yellow zone after almost two months between the red and orange zones.
“I asked the government not to revoke the rules that families and businesses have tried to adapt to and that they have been trying to plan for for weeks on. provide a framework of stability that allows facing the near future with a minimum of prospects. As of January 7, it is necessary to return to the pre-Christmas discipline that provides for the division into three bands. I shared, like all my colleagues, the proposal to lower the Rt thresholds foreseen for the passage from yellow to orange and then to red (taking the limits set today to 1.50 and 1.25, respectively to 1.25 and 1.00 ). But it is one thing to ‘do’ maintenance ‘of the instrument also on the basis of experience – concludes Marsilio – It would be quite another to change the rules of the game once again ”.
The president of Liguria Giovanni Toti, for his part, says in favor of changing the parameters again, but specifies that “in addition to the RT criterion proposed by the government, it is also necessary to consider the classification of tampons, counting unhealthy ones, the incidence rate of the virus “. and the number of patients in hospitals. “” The Regions – Toti explains – have agreed that we are still experiencing a complex moment, in which the rate of spread of the virus has begun to grow again, both in Europe and in Italy In addition, all the implications of the so-called ‘English variant’, with a higher contagion rate “. In any case, argues the governor, we must avoid “unfair and penalizing regional classifications, or even absurd ones, that punish those who rub the most.” “Today the Government-Regions debate will continue both on the rules that will be applied from January 7 to 15, both in the new Dpcm which, Toti says, “will be valid as of January 16 for the next few weeks.”
The reopening of schools on January 7
Meanwhile, there is a heated debate in the government about reopening schools. If Conte supports M5 Minister Lucia Azzolina to support the return of at least 50% of high school students, the Democratic Party has more doubts. Like many regional presidents. The first to move was the president of the Campania Region, Vincenzo De Luca, who has already decided to stagger back to school, starting from primary school and kindergarten to reach full capacity by the end of the month. The governor of Puglia, Michele Emiliano, wants to do the same, but could evaluate the possibility of leaving families the option of returning to class or distance education and in the meantime thinks about delaying everything for a week. Governor Luca Zaia, on the other hand, ordered the closure of secondary schools until January 31. “It does not seem prudent to us – said the governor – in an epidemiological situation in Italy to reopen schools. This is what we must do today for the good of the community.” And so did Friuli Venezia Giulia decide. “100% distance education for secondary schools is extended until January 31,” says Friuli Venezia Giulia regional education councilor Alessia Rosolen today at a press conference in Trieste with her colleagues Graziano Pizzimenti (Transport ) and Riccardo Riccardi (Health). “It is a choice of responsibility that goes beyond the consent of those who wanted a quick and extensive return to school, and aims to protect the health of children and all school personnel. When a system is opened -concludes the councilor-, there must be guarantees that it remains open “.
