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“Limiting movements, even from municipality to municipality, serves to reduce encounters between people and, therefore, the circulation of the virus. We arrive at these Christmas holidays in a very different epidemiological condition than the one that preceded the summer holidays. Today we are still in 18 thousand cases a day, there are many: a very high base for the third wave. And do you know when we will have knowledge of the contagion cases that occurred at Christmas? Towards January 7, when the schools will reopen.
Professor Massimo Galli, primary specialist in infectious diseases at the Sacco hospital in Milan and a professor at the State University, explains the logic of the bans scheduled for December 25 and 26 and January 1. And the fewer trips, even from small municipalities, the less chances of contagion are created.
The dreaded third wave, at the beginning of 2021, seems dangerous because it will be fed by a very high number of infected.
“We are more infected with Sars-CoV-2 at this moment, in Italy, than when the discos were opened. At that time there was less evidence, it is true, but in any case there had been a real collapse in the number of symptomatic patients, even counting the asymptomatic patients never evaluated, the number of positives is thought to be much lower than at present. We continue to have a large number of people with the virus circulating these days. The reopening of the Regions, with these assumptions, has connotations that justify the fears of the Higher Institute of Health ”.
What will happen?
“Some of my colleagues say that the third wave is inevitable. But even if we call it an extension of the second, small changes. However, it is evident that when the movements accentuate the risks that we run, it would be a certainty that the infections would grow again markedly ”.
But will more people moving for Christmas inevitably cause an increase in infections?
“See you … They will shuffle the cards more and there will surely be problems.”
Several hypotheses were discussed: stop at Christmas the movements from one municipality to another or simply only within a province or region. How does this choice affect the number of infections? Does something really change if a citizen of Morlupo, Canepina or Forlimpopoli travels a couple of kilometers and goes to the neighboring municipality?
“It is difficult to say how and to what extent the different degrees of prohibition affect. But, as I said, the more you shuffle the cards, the more people move, the more the chances of contagion increase. I understand the contradiction: in the big city, if you limit your movements to the municipal limits, the effect is different than in a small town. But the goal is simple: reduce the number of people on the move. The more candid you are, the more risk you add. I hope citizens use common sense. Last week a friend asked me: “I went to that store for Black Friday, how come there are so many reckless people?”; I replied: “Sure, but you were among those people.” We all have to avoid gatherings, encounters, encounters ».
Is it helpful to take a quick swab before seeing family members you don’t live with?
“I don’t even want to encourage speculation about paid tampons. Having said that, I find that diagnostics can make a huge contribution. And it helps to do a swab before going to see an older person. However, after you have done it, even if it is negative, you must continue with great care, take all precautions, because you could later become infected and transmit the virus to a family member.
When will we register the negative effects of Christmas recklessness?
“The Christmas season will also see a decrease in the run of molecular swabs. The data will be imperfect for a while. The signals could arrive around January 7, when we will have to resume some activities, starting with the schools in attendance. This is a hypothesis that unfortunately has concrete possibilities of being realized ».
Last update: December 13 at 08:34
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