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There is a concept of common domination, almost an axiom: the southern regions, and among these Puglia, during the first wave were not overwhelmed and annihilated by the pandemic because the closure occurred in a timely manner, that is when the circulation of the coronavirus was in its infancy and therefore fundamentally low. All true. After all, this is the principle that drives any dpcm and restriction of varying intensity: limiting movements and opportunities for contact deprives the virus of the vector, that is, of human contact.
In Italy, the effects of the decree that had divided the country into three bands are beginning to be timidly noticeable: everywhere, the contagion curve seems to be decreasing slightly or in any case gradually stabilizing. This is the case in all regions except one: Puglia. Observing the graphs produced by Paolo Spada (the “doctor of numbers” from Pillole di Ottimism) based on data from the Ministry of Health, we can see for Puglia an upward curve that crosses the “green” phase without any apparent brake, it is say the one of soft restrictions, much like the “orange” weeks, however, characterized by the greater limitation of the Region to the school lessons in presence (not only dad for high school, but also the choice of parents for school primary school and high school).
In short: the crackdown would not have had any effect on the containment of the virus, at least apparently. One caveat is valid for all Italian regions: in light of the time between infection and notification of the case, it is estimated that the effectiveness of any restrictive measure is delayed by 10-15 days compared to the official launch date. of decrees and measures. However, Puglia was in the orange band from November 6 until the next day. The graphs calculate the incidence per 100,000 inhabitants in the average of seven days, a criterion that is considered reliable: yesterday the figure for Apulia was 276, which means that in the last week there was an average daily increase of about 1,600 cases.
We have chosen two other sample regions, somewhat symbolic, for comparison: Lombardy, the first center of the Italian pandemic; and Campania, another southern region that limited damage during the virus’s first invasion, but found itself handling the second wave of increasing numbers, not a few delays, structural difficulties. Good: in both cases, for Lombardy first red and then orange, and for Campania yellow, then red and since yesterday orange, the curve of new infections takes the slope. The trend is similar for the other regions, obviously with the necessary differences: Sardinia seems to have just started the decline, Veneto is in a long and flat phase, Friuli and Sicily are still ups and downs but seem to be declining, all others are highlighted by parables. descending from various inclinations, inaugurated precisely in force of the previous dpcm. Even Abruzzo, the only red region at the moment, has an encouraging curve.
So why this exception from Apulia? Multiple factors could have an impact. Obviously, for example, when the orange restrictions arrived, the coronavirus circulated in Puglia much more than the swabs revealed. And the variable of contact tracing should not be neglected: in Puglia, positive contact tracing – and the indicators of the Ministry of Health also say so – is in continuous difficulty, always on the verge of collapsing or going crazy. Bottom line: in the presence of an infected person, prompt monitoring of your contacts is essential. Otherwise, the virus walks on people’s legs. Dpcm restrictions or not.
Last updated: 11:10
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