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A few hours separate us from the start of Phase 2, the period of gradual return to normality and easing of blocking measures proposed by the Government in the Decree of April 26. And among the activities that will restart, the manufacturing and construction sector, With wholesaler from related supply chains. The green light, therefore, for the textile, fashion, automotive, extractive industry, furniture manufacturing and bars and restaurants will be able to carry out takeaway and delivery activities.
A third of the activities will not restart.
But even when the shirts are loosened further, not all entrepreneurs will be able to start again. The Unimpresa Study Center estimates in particular that, in June, 30% of activities related to retail and catering will not be able to reopen, and therefore will not.
Why? Because for about a third of entrepreneurs the resumption of some exercises is not convenient financially, calculating fixed costs in which discounts and freezes are not carried out: such as rentals, public services, taxes on waste and public land.
The other side of the restart
A dramatic figure, who tells the other side of the restart and the scope of the economic consequences of the blockade for many Italian businessmen. And for these sectors, which, the Association explains in a note, “they will also live in illegal jobs, it will open a social drama on the employment side. “
The economic impact of the phenomenon.
The closure of 30% of the shops, bars and restaurants, and the consequent blocking of related activities, could result in a reduction in the general turnover of 250 billion euros of gross domestic product. To arrive at this figure, a company assumes that 60% of GDP is linked to the domestic market and that 30% of this market (that is, 18% of total GDP) could suffer serious repercussions.
Even public finances could lose: from this point of view, the income reduction expected could come up with 80 billionWhile the state would continue to spend on assistance measures for the newly unemployed.
Fixed costs, when the recovery is not economic.
According to Unimpresa vice president Giuseppe Spadafora, 30% of “restaurant activities, bars, small clothing stores, small retail outlets” “is now safe.” Reopening for them would be indeed “Wasteful”Because they would find themselves “paying rent, taxes and goods in the store” against the losses of the last months.
The problem, Spadafora summarizes, is that restaurant and retail related activities “they did not have access to the 25 thousand euros promoted by the government and everyone will have to abide by the new provisions on distances. In short, a bar that reopens in June will be able to work with a third of customers simply because it won’t be able to allow them to enter your business. It also means a third of the profits, but with the same fixed costs like bills, rentals, taxes on public land, waste. “
The fear of a company’s vice president, in particular, is that the state does not have the “resources to support these companies and will probably not have the money to support unemployment derived from this. “Not to mention that the sector in question is normally the sector” most affected by blacks, but on the other hand, maintains a certain social cohesion. “ The economy, he explains, has a pyramid shape: “The large producer, the medium resells, the small purchase to sell to the end customer.” And if one part of the chain gets stuck, “if thousands of small businesses close or don’t reopen, all the rest will explode.”
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