Once again Europe bows to Orban

The devil is in the details, they say. And even in this case it is. Here is the ‘detail’, which then becomes ‘substance’: the European Council should sign today the agreement reached by the German presidency with Hungary and Poland on the link between respect for the rule of law and the possibility of using European funds, but this regulation will not come into force immediately, together with the multi-annual European budget and the recovery fund, both from next year. The regulation will come out of the EU summit in a state that could well be defined as a ‘suspension’. Its application will depend on the Court of Justice of the European Union when it decides on an appeal that Poland and Hungary will have time to file in the next two months.

This is what is set out in the draft conclusions of the European Council which begins today in Brussels. The text orders the European Commission to draw up, “together with the Member States”, the “guidelines” for the rule of law regulation. A process that, according to EU sources, could take two months. If an appeal were brought within this period of time, “the guidelines would be defined only after the ruling of the European Court of Justice”. The President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is responsible for “reporting to the European Council”, but “until these guidelines are defined, the Commission will not be able to propose measures regarding the regulation of the rule of law.”

That is, you will not be able to block funds. Here is the key paragraph:

It is not yet clear whether Hungary and Poland will appeal. But you can already bet that they will, given that they have vetoed the budget and the recovery fund to block regulation that they say hurts them. Thus, in 2021 Viktor Orban and his Polish ally Mateusz Morawiecki will be able to withdraw money from the EU and will be able to continue violating rights in their country without anyone being able to stop them. And above all without anyone being able to block the disbursement of European funds.

Angela Merkel defends the result obtained: “In recent days, Germany – and I personally too – have worked very hard to respond to the concerns of Hungary and Poland and at the same time to preserve the mechanism of the rule of law.”

“We must avoid arbitrary decisions” on the rules of the rule of law, says Morawiecki before joining the Europa building for the summit with the other EU leaders. “For this reason – he continues – we are immersed in negotiations that clarify the dividing line between anti-fraud regulation, which we support, and the rule of law that is already clarified in the treaty. Mixing the two creates a dangerous situation that could lead to a politically motivated attack. Today we could be attacked, but in the future also others, Italy, Spain. To avoid this ambiguity, we have presented these conclusions, a prerequisite for moving forward ”.

“We are one centimeter from the agreement” in favor of “the unity of the EU and the victory of common sense,” says Orban as soon as he arrives in Brussels. With the pandemic we must behave in a reasonable way and think about helping Europeans and the countries most affected from an economic point of view ”.

In fact, the agreement reached by Angela Merkel with Hungary and Poland cancels the one signed with the European Parliament, which requested and obtained a regulation that would link EU funds to respect for the fundamental values ​​of the Union. “The European Council cannot violate the rule of law of the EU Treaties to save the EU regulation on the rule of law – says Sandro Gozi, MEP of Renew Europe, a political group that has insisted more on the inclusion of conditionality linked to the rule of law in New European funds – As guardian of the Treaties, Ursula Von der Leyen cannot accept to ignore them. When a regulation is adopted, you have to work to implement it, do not say in advance that you will suspend it!

But the compromise reached yesterday serves to overcome the veto of the two eastern countries on the budget and the recovery fund. With the hypothesis of moving on at 25, without Hungary and Poland, used more as a negotiating tactic in recent days than as a real possibility, the path of compromise remained. However, this represents a huge concession for two countries that have long been in the EU’s crosshairs for violations of the rule of law: there are already open investigations under Article 7 of the Treaty, but the European Council (i.e. the other member states) never decided to open formal procedures.

Today’s pledge is another bow to the claims of Orban and Morawiecki, very loyal to the founder of Pis, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of Polish nationalism. Once again, the EU bows to the countries of the East. And this time, not even the Netherlands raised objections, at least until yesterday’s meeting of the ambassadors of the Member States, where the compromise reached was presented.

However, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has always struck the table out of respect for the rule of law, an issue deeply felt by Dutch and German public opinion. But today, arriving at the EU summit, Rutte raises some objections: “I have three fundamental questions: I want to know what the EU Parliament thinks, and I hope that we can find out this morning from the president; and I want to be absolutely sure that the compromise does not limit in any way the mechanism and its rules ”.

The President of Parliament, David Sassoli, at a press conference after giving his opening speech at the EU summit, responds that he cannot be “asked to comment on a draft”, “we want the rule of law regulation comes into force: if the recovery fund starts at 25 instead of 27 we are happy “, although, he adds,” we are at a time when decisions have to be made, they should not be postponed. “He then suggests that he does not believe that Rutte have a real intention of opposing the compromise reached by Merkel: “I have found a lot of responsibility in the Council and less tension than on other occasions. I also say this with regard to the objections made publicly by some prime ministers: it seemed to me that there is a will to put mechanisms that we have negotiated together are in place “:

Merkel thus built the compromise with Hungary and Poland. The Chancellor, in fact, has always wanted to mediate with them and has done so again. It’s a great concession especially for Orban. In 2022 we voted in Hungary. The Prime Minister of Budapest will easily be able to campaign for Fidesz without hindrance from Brussels.