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A government crisis with an eventual return to the polls is the worst scenario for the M5. There are two reasons in particular why pentastellati don’t sleep soundly. First of all, the numbers of the polls: in the event of an early vote, the Movement would lose many seats compared to those obtained in 2018. Then there is the question, not least, of “second period “. Many, even among the leaders, according to the internal rules could not re-apply. But we know that nothing is forever in politics. And thus, among the pentastellati the hypothesis of a modification of the regulation is advanced. Or, and this could be the solution that saves goats and cabbages, an exception could be chosen in the name of the exceptional nature of the moment our country is experiencing.
In both circumstances it appears that the fate of the Movement’s members is linked to the Prime Minister’s decisions. Giuseppe Conte. And this could be a factor to take into account for any rebalancing between the majority forces and for possible maneuvers aimed at the polls, although the latter is a difficult eventuality to implement.
The prohibition of the third term is a gigantic unknown that paralyzes the movements of the 5. In case of early elections, many of them should say goodbye to politics or, at the very least, greet the Movement and seek refuge, which is very difficult, in some other party. For this Matteo renzi bet on the impossibility of grillini to break their limits. The leader of Italy live for weeks supports: “I’m sure that to stay where he is, anyone would vote, even a prime minister of the Democratic Party, or Mario Draghi.”. Possible, given that the pentastellati themselves have changed many of their positions since they are in government with the dem.
Conte is aware of this fragility of the Movement and could take advantage of the situation to take advantage of it. As multiple sources of the M5 reveal to La Stampa, in recent days the entire steering group, ministers and undersecretaries for the second term, deputies and senators, have found themselves discussing a double possibility to exceed the norm that until recently represented an element basic of the grillini and now only a big problem appears for them. The first concerns the possibility for Conte to create his own list. In this case, the new party could serve to guarantee those who, due to the rules of the second legislature, would no longer have the opportunity to return to Parliament. In practice, the 5 who could not re-run with the Movement could find hospitality on the Conte list. But not all that glitters is gold. Because another problem would arise: the new creature would steal votes from the Movement. In this case, one must consider whether the game is worth the risk.
The second possibility always sees the prime minister leading the games. Conte would do the “federator “, in the style of Romano Prodi in 2006, and Grillo, according to the M5S leaders, would cancel the term limit with the excuse of the exceptional crisis situation unleashed by Renzi. The prime minister sees this as a more concrete perspective. At the same time, however, he does not try to clearly deny the hypothesis of one of his lists: this “idea” could be useful in the future, perhaps if the 5 had to turn their backs to lock up a government of broad agreements with another. figure in place.
There are doubts about what the Movement would do if an emergency or national unity executive were born. “I told Conte that he must guarantee the fate of the match that put him in the Palazzo Chigi”I would tell more people Luigi di maio. According to the latter “voting is not the solution”. The minister is aware of this: the problem would mainly affect the M5s, who must think about what to do in the future and with whom.
Also, there is another element that should not be underestimated. In the event of a vote, the M5s alone would have little chance of a good result. The story of not wanting to come to terms with traditional matches cannot be played now. For this reason, the Grillini must seek alliances with other teams, such as the Democratic Party. But in this case, would the voters who chose 5 as an anti-dem function be willing to vote again for the Movement?
